Re-visiting WR carry (CAR) attribute in Madden 12

   

So after some debate and talking with others in the Madden community, I decided to revisit the WR carry (CAR) attribute inconsistencies in Madden 12. Let me say, that outside of the fumbles statistics itself, I couldn't find anywhere on the Internet that calculated a fumble percentage based on total number of touches. Needless to say, I had to calculate it myself and it took some time.

You will see in the following table several abbreviations. Here is my definition for each abbreviation:

STR = Current strength rating in Madden 12 as of Week 16 update (12/23/11)

CAR = Current carry ratings in Madden 12 as of Week 16 update (12/23/11)

CRFUM = Total career fumbles

CRTCHs = Total career touches, which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

FUM% = The fumble percentage (fumbles/touches) of the player. This is calculated three ways, using career, 3-year totals, and current season.

11'FUM = The current number of fumbles for the 2011 NFL season (prior to week 16 games).

11'TCHs = The total number of touches for 2011, which includes which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

3yrFUM = The total number of fumbles from 2009 to 2011 (prior to week 16 games).

3yrTCHs = The total number of touches from 2009 to 2011 (prior to week 16 games), which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

The following table includes the Top 6 and bottom 6 WRs in carry (CAR) attribute for Madden 12 as of the Week 16 update. I also included 10 other well known WRs for comparison. I did not create an average for the 10 I selected, because it was too random in nature.

Red = highest number of fumbles and highest fumble percentage.

Blue = lowest number of fumbles and lowest fumble percentage.

* Please note: The range for carry (CAR) ratings for all Madden 12 WRs is from 43 (Bess) to 82 (Cribbs & Welker).

* All fumbles and touch statistics were collected from NFL.com. I had to do the math though:)

Name	STR	CAR	CRFUM	CRTCHs	FUM%	11' FUM	11' TCHs	FUM%	3yrFUM	3yrTCHs	FUM%
Cal. Johnson	78	76	9	370	2.4%	1	82	1.2%	5	237	2.1%
V. Jackson	78	75	1	281	0.4%	0	58	0.0%	0	144	0.0%
L. Moore	45	75	5	306	1.6%	0	50	0.0%	2	142	1.4%
Fitzgerald	76	74	5	694	0.7%	0	65	0.0%	0	252	0.0%
Wayne	53	73	8	848	0.9%	0	59	0.0%	1	270	0.4%
Boldin	79	73	17	782	2.2%	0	57	0.0%	4	210	1.9%
White	69	72	8	524	1.5%	0	85	0.0%	2	287	0.7%
Garcon	64	64	3	225	1.3%	2	80	2.5%	3	198	1.5%
Floyd	72	65	1	162	0.6%	0	30	0.0%	1	112	0.9%
Jennings	55	64	5	395	1.3%	0	67	0.0%	2	212	0.9%
Top 6
Name	STR	CAR	CRFUM	CRTCHs	FUM%	11' FUM	11' TCHs	FUM%	3yrFUM	3yrTCHs	FUM%
Cribbs	64	82	27	703	3.8%	2	101	2.0%	13	373	3.5%
Welker	55	82	20	1044	1.9%	1	115	0.9%	4	361	1.1%
Brad Smith	63	81	5	295	1.7%	0	57	0.0%	1	186	0.5%
S. Smith (CAR)	67	81	30	1020	2.9%	2	78	2.6%	6	199	3.0%
P. Harvin	67	79	4	374	1.1%	2	128	1.6%	4	374	1.1%
H. Ward	67	79	14	1058	1.3%	1	37	2.7%	4	192	2.1%
Averages	63.8	80.7	16.7	749	2.1%	1.3	86	1.6%	5.3	280.8	1.9%
Bottom 6
Name	STR	CAR	CRFUM	CRTCHs	FUM%	11' FUM	11' TCHs	FUM%	3yrFUM	3yrTCHs	FUM%
Bess	43	46	14	382	3.7%	4	80	5.0%	13	292	4.5%
E. Sanders (PIT)	40	46	2	86	2.3%	0	29	0.0%	2	86	2.3%
D. Briscoe	66	49	0	33	0.0%	0	27	0.0%	0	33	0.0%
B. Hartline	52	52	1	113	0.9%	0	30	0.0%	1	113	0.9%
D. Butler	37	53	0	62	0.0%	0	3	0.0%	0	62	0.0%
D.Williams (TEN)	58	53	0	52	0.0%	0	35	0.0%	0	52	0.0%
Averages	49.3	49.8	2.8	121.3	1.1%	0.7	34.0	0.8%	2.7	106.3	1.3%

** Update:  The fumble percentage for all NFL WR's during the 2011 regular season was 0.99%.  Please note that was based on receptions only, it does not include rushing or kick/punt return touches.

    First, I know the percentages are small for all the players. It just shows how well most NFL players protect the ball. Low percentages or not, they are the only thing we have to go on. I believe the percentage of fumbles per touch is a better indicator of a players carrying ability than just the raw fumble number itself.

    I originally wanted to include the strength attribute to see if there was some correlation between the carry rating and strength. There is some indication based on the top 6 and bottom 6, that strength may impact the carry rating the players. Weaker well known players seem to buck that trend, if it's a true trend at all. I don't think these tables are enough to say for sure that an average player with low strength will receive a low carry rating.

    It must also be noted, that players who have returned punt or kickoffs in their career tend to have more fumbles. This doesn't prove that all return men fumble at a higher rate, but it does show the possibility of that. While collecting this data, I noticed players like: Cribbs, S.Smith, Welker, and Bess have had the majority of their fumbles as return man. All of these players also have fumbles at their primary wide receiver position as well. If it's true that returners fumble at a higher rate than other position players, how should this effect their Madden carry (CAR) rating? Recently, I talked with Sgibs of Prima Madden and we kicked around the idea of having two carry (CAR) ratings. One for the player at his primary position and one as a return man. Maybe this would be too difficult to do within the current ratings program. If it's not too difficult, it would make a lot of sense. An example would be: Josh Cribbs having a 60 carry (CAR) as a return man and a 65 (CAR) as a WR. Is it fair to penalize a return man more for fumbles, when that same carry rating currently effects him as a WR as well?

    When you go back to the table you will see some shocking names leading in fumbles, like: Calvin Johnson and Boldin. Both Johnson and Boldin are fumbling from just the WR position. Even though Johnson only has one fumble this year and Boldin has zero, it's doesn't appear that the Madden ratings staff has considered their career or 3 year averages for fumbles. While we can all agree Calvin (Megatron) Johsnon is one the best wide receivers in the NFL, it's evident he has some history of dropping the rock. Remember, all of Johnson's fumbles are as a WR. It's appears as though "Megatron" hasn't received any real decrease for his fumbles, but shouldn't he? I think he should.

    After creating these tables, I noticed that some players received "the ratings pass" and others didn't. I know the tables are busy with numbers, but try to look at them for a few minutes and see if you can find any consistency. I couldn't and I've been looking at them for days.

Final thoughts:

1. Why doesn't Vincent Jackson have the highest carry rating for WRs. He has 1 career fumble and hasn't fumbled the ball in over 3 years.

2. Is it just me or is it crazy that Calvin Johnson's carry rating actually went up this week from 75 to 76. At the same time, Garcon went from 68 to 64 thanks due to a two fumble effort in week 15? Not that Garcon shouldn't have taken a little decrease for that performance, but those two fumbles were just the 2nd and 3rd of his career, while Johnson has 9 career fumbles.

3. Why does Bess pay the price for his fumbles as both a WR and as a return man, but Cribbs gets a complete pass?

4. What in the heck is going on with Steve Smith (Panthers). I never knew he was that bad and protecting the ball. To be fair, he did return a lot of kicks early in his career, but during the last 3 years he is still fumbling the ball and has received the 2nd highest carry rating out of all WRs in Madden 12. He has 30 career fumbles. For the love of God, can that really be ignored.

5. Maybe worst of all, is that the bottom 6 players average out to be better than the top 6. That includes having Bess in that group. It should also be noted, that a lot of the players in the bottom 6 have had limited touches.

6. What would it take for a bottom 6 player to receive a higher carry rating? Limited touches or not, three of them have zero career fumbles.

7. Maybe there should be a carry (CAR) rating that wide receivers intially get in Madden. Something in the middle like 60-62. As that players season and career progresses, this number can be adjusted accordingly. Let's say 60 is that number. Calvin Johnson should be below that number. Wayne, Jackson, and Fitzgerald should be well above that number based on the last 3 years and career FUM%.

    That is all for now. I know it's a lot of information in one blog, but I think it was needed to paint a full picture. Please feel free to comment. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you.