One statistic I found along way, was courtesy of www.ProFootballFocus.com. They have a stat called "drop %". This percentage is the number of drops a player has, divided by the number of "catchable" targets. Granted, this stat is based on their subjective opinion when it comes to what a catchable ball is. The percentage is still very useful, because they apply the same rules for determining what is a catchable ball to all players equally. By applying the same rules to each player, they reduce (if not eliminate) bias and create a more objective statistic.
I can't go over every little part of their grading policy on this blog, but I encourage you to go to their website and read the grading (under the about tab). You can read this information for free.
It's become clear to me over the last couple of weeks, there is basically two sides of the Madden ratings debate. There is the statistical side (objective) and the perception side (subjective). Obviously, I lean toward the objective side. I have realized that some attributes in Madden are easy to look at objectively (CAR, CAT, THA) and others are more of a subjective attribute (SPC, CIT, AWR). For Madden ratings to be consistent there needs to be a balance between objectivity and subjectivity. There also needs to be a clearly defined ratings system. The reason ProFootballFocus can maintain a high level of credibility while admitting that there is some subjectively in their stats, is because they "define a clear set of rules" that apply to all players and all teams. (ProFootballFocus.com)
The #1 thing EA should address when it comes to Madden player ratings, should be implementing a "clear set of rules" and procedures for rating players and each individual attribute. Rules and procedures give credibility to the entire ratings staff. This would also make their jobs easier when rating players, plus it will result in more consistency. EA could than put the ratings policy and procedures on the web for all to see. While some people will always disagree with the ratings, others will be very happy to see the procedures in black and white. Full transparency would work wonders, similar to what PFF has given it's audience.
Now, let's look at some catch (CAT) attributes. The table includes WRs with the top CAT rating in Madden and other well known/lesser known WRs. The inconsistencies are pretty obvious. I included the spectacular catch (SPC) and catch in traffic attribute (CIT) as well, althought they are subjective attributes. You will also see the current number of catches the players have in 2011. Stats were collective from STATS LLC and ProFootball Focus. The attributes are from the most current roster update (week 16).
Drop% = ProFootballFocus drop % based on "catchable targets".
Red = worst
Blue = best
| WR's Catch (CAT) attribute analysis | |||||||||
| Current ratings | 2011 | Drop % | Drop % | Drop % | |||||
| Name | CAT | CIT | SPC | Catches | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | ||
| Welker | <><><><>98 | <><><><>99 | 84 | <><><><>116 | 8.80 | 13.13 | 4.65 | ||
| Fitzgerald | 98 | 97 | 100 | 71 | 4.11 | 3.23 | 3.06 | ||
| Bess | 95 | 75 | 67 | 45 | 10.00 | 7.06 | 8.54 | ||
| Smith (CAR) | 95 | 88 | 86 | 73 | 7.69 | 18.18 | 4.41 | ||
| Marshall | 94 | 96 | 86 | 77 | 14.44 | 13.13 | 7.41 | ||
| R. White | 94 | 96 | 90 | 96 | 12.50 | 7.26 | 6.84 | ||
| Lloyd | 94 | 80 | 99 | 64 | 11.76 | 4.94 | 20.00 | ||
| Wayne | 94 | 94 | 90 | 67 | 2.90 | 7.50 | 2.91 | ||
| Gaffney | 90 | 82 | 79 | 64 | 3.03 | 7.14 | 5.26 | ||
| Dez Bryant | 88 | 88 | 97 | 57 | 1.72 | 6.25 | 2009 College | ||
| Harvin | 85 | 80 | 86 | 77 | 2.86 | 6.58 | 6.45 | ||
| D. Nelson | 81 | 83 | 78 | 59 | 6.35 | 6.06 | 2009 College | ||
| Garcon | <><><><>79 | <><><><>72 | 86 | 68 | 6.85 | 16.25 | 7.84 | ||
© 2010 ProFootballFocus.com. All rights reserved.
© 2011 STATS LLC. All Rights Reserved
After looking at this small sample, you may be thinking that there is absolutely no consistency with the catch (CAT) rating. I would agree. I included actual catches on the season to see if there was some correlation between actually NFL catches and CAT rating. There is a possible connection, but it is not consistent. It is clear, that drops or in this case the "Drop %" are a non factor in the CAT rating. I may be wrong, but I see the catch attribute as being the players ability to catch a pass. If so, "Drop %" should play a role in rating that attribute.
Remember at the beginning I mention that CIT and SPC tend to be more of a subjective attribute. This means that even though Brandon Marshall should have a lower CAT rating, he may still be one of the better WRs when it comes to CIT and SPC. This would still make him a very good player in Madden, but to lower his CAT would be a more realistic representation of his play on the field.
Marshall has a clear trend over the last three years. He is actually dropping a higher percentage of his passes as each year goes by. Harvin on the other hand is getting better throughout his career and has been better than Marshall every year from 2009 to 2011.
Final thoughts:
1. Does perception trump everything when rating players like Marshall and White?
2. Why has Garcon payed such a heavy price for his terrible 2010, when Steve Smith of Carolina hasn't? Garcon has actually been better than Smith the last two seasons.
3. Should the catch (CAT) rating be based on the number of catches a player has during a season (career) or should it be based on their actual ability to catch a "catchable" pass?
4. Why in the world does Devon Bess have a 95 CAT when Harvin is only an 85 and Nelson is only an 81.
5. Does David Nelson get missed because he plays in Buffalo? He has been very good and consistent his first two seasons when it comes to catching the ball. In no way should he have an 81 CAT.
6. Take some time and look at the CAT ratings in Madden and look at stats from places like ProFootballFocus or STATS Inc. It will show that this inconsistency in catch (CAT) attribute is present not only in wide receivers (WR), but among tight ends (TE) and running backs (RB) as well.
Pierre Thomas went two seasons in 2009 and 2010 without a catchable drop and is doing great this year with a 4.08% drop rate and is only a 74 CAT. Gore has been horrible this year and has declined over the last two seasons, yet he is still a 76 CAT.
| Catches | Drop % | Drop % | Drop % | |||||
| TE's | CAT | CIT | SPC | 2011 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| Witten | 97 | 93 | 79 | 69 | 5.48 | 2.17 | 5.81 | |
| Gates | 93 | 94 | 93 | 59 | 1.67 | 5.77 | 7.14 | |
| J. Graham | 93 | 89 | 92 | 88 | 6.38 | 8.82 | Rookie | |
| Clark | 91 | 76 | 93 | 29 | 20.00 | 7.50 | 7.14 | |
| Finley | 87 | 84 | 93 | 48 | 18.64 | 0.00 | 6.78 | Limited in 10 |
| Fasano | 86 | 84 | 67 | 28 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 8.82 | |
| V. Davis | 85 | 74 | 80 | 59 | 7.94 | 10.00 | 14.29 | |
| Pitta | 85 | 85 | 84 | 34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Rookie | Limited in 10 |
| Lewis | 84 | 87 | 71 | 36 | 12.50 | 8.33 | 11.76 | |
| Chandler | 82 | 82 | 74 | 35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Rookie | |
| K. Davis | 75 | 80 | 75 | 18 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | Limited 09/10 |
| Catches | Drop % | Drop % | Drop % | |||||
| RB's | CAT | CIT | SPC | 2011 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| Forte | 84 | 75 | 70 | 52 | 1.89 | 1.92 | 5.00 | |
| R. Bush | 83 | 84 | 87 | 43 | 4.44 | 5.56 | 0.00 | |
| Sproles | 83 | 65 | 55 | 81 | 10.11 | 4.84 | 4.26 | |
| F. Jackson | 79 | 65 | 40 | 39 | 0.00 | 22.50 | 6.12 | |
| S. Jackson | 79 | 70 | 59 | 41 | 2.38 | 9.80 | 5.56 | |
| Tolbert | 78 | 60 | 45 | 53 | 10.17 | 7.69 | 15.00 | |
| Gore | 76 | 48 | 53 | 17 | 29.17 | 9.80 | 1.92 | |
| M. Bush | 74 | 40 | 25 | 35 | 2.78 | 5.26 | 5.56 | |
| P. Thomas | 74 | 67 | 45 | 47 | 4.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Gerhart | 64 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 0.00 | 12.50 | Rookie | |
| D. Ware | 55 | 50 | 45 | 26 | 3.70 | 12.50 | 0.00 | Limited in 11 |
| Lynch | 54 | 35 | 40 | 26 | 10.34 | 8.70 | 12.50 |
© 2010 ProFootballFocus.com. All rights reserved.
© 2011 STATS LLC. All Rights Reserved
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