Here is his idea:
May 28, 2012 7:49 PM
Interested to see really how the block shed rating is determined for top run stuffing and elite pass rushing defensive linemen.
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The rest of this blog post will be my take on this idea. He wanted top run stuffing and elite pass rushing defensive lineman in this blog, so I decided to use Madden 12's final overall (OVR) ratings to select these players. Why not use EA's own ratings and see how it plays out. (Please note - I typically don't use OVR rating for anything in my blogs because I believe the formula is extremely flawed.) In the end, the cut for each position ended up being 84 OVR or better. I also got the average BSH rating for all LE's, RE's, and DT's in Madden 12.
One of the reasons I choose this idea as the winner is because I knew it would be a challenge. If you have followed my blogs in the past, then you know I believe attribute ratings should be as objective as possible. The block shed (BSH) attribute has a component of subjectivity that can't be ignored, therefore it's a challenging attribute to rate.
The biggest problem with rating BSH, is how to rate players who get constantly double-teamed. Many dominate defensive lineman face a lot of double-teams, this has a negative impact on their statistics. Not to mention, defensive lineman in a 3-4 scheme tend to face more double-teams then those in a 4-3 scheme. That said, some of the best defensive lineman can even beat double teams from time to time. In the case of the block shed (BSH) attribute, statistics can't possibly tell the whole story. Don't get me wrong, I still think statistics play an important role with this attribute, but so does the eye test and that is where the subjectivity (bias) comes in to play.
To date I have not found a website that tracks the number of times or the percentage (%) of plays that an individual player is double-teamed. If there was such a statistic I think the BSH attribute could be much more objective and less subjective. The key to rating the BSH attribute is to watch a lot of game tape and combine that with useful statistics. Unfortunately, the "Madden ratings team" isn't big enough to give the BSH attribute that kind of attention, they just don't have the resources.
My goal was to try and figure out what statistics (if any) were used to rate the BSH attribute. I would also be taking a close look at the consistency of the attribute rating as well.
First, I collected the BSH rating for every LE, RE, and DT from the final roster update in Madden 12. This allowed me to come up with an average, mode (the most reoccurring number), and a range for the BSH attribute. Here are the results:
You can see from the above table that Defensive Tackles have the highest average BSH attribute, followed by Right and Left Ends. The Modes (most reoccurring number) are very close and the ranges are similar as well.
Next I created spreadsheets for all three positions which included: Overall rating (OVR), Strength (STR), Power Move (PMV), Finesse Move (FMV), and BSH attributes. I also included their sack totals from 2011 and the last three seasons. The sack statistics where gathered from NFL.com.
I added two ratings from www.ProFootballFocus.com. The first is the Pass Rush Productivity (PRP) rating, which is derived from sacks, QB pressures, and QB hits. Basically, the PRP gives you more information to consider when determining how effective a player is as a pass rusher. Sacks alone don't paint a full picture. The second ratings I used from www.ProFootballFocus.com was their Run Stop % rating. This is their definition of stop %, "Stops constitute a "loss" for the offense so this table shows the percentage of stops per snap played only in run defense."
I choose these two statistics from PFF because I believe they can aid in rating the BSH attribute. By no means do I think any of these statistics should be the sole resource for rating BSH.
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Here is the spreadsheet for LE's:
BLUE = highest or best in that category.
An (*) indicates the player has been in the league less than 3 years.
The average BSH attribute for all LE's in Madden 12 was 75.8.
The first thing that should jump out at you is that Robert Mathis has a BSH attribute of 69, that is almost 7 points lower than the average BSH attribute for all LE's. You can look at all the statistics and game tape you want, but I would be embarrassed if I had to take credit for this rating. Did you know that there is a longsnapper named John Denney who has a block shed of 70? Mr. Denney has a total of 29 tackles in 7 seven seasons with zero sacks, yet he has a better BSH than Robert Mathis. Really?
Mathis is not alone, there are several top LE's at or below the average BSH rating. Why is this happening? I will address that question later in this blog.
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Here is the spreadsheet for RE's:
BLUE = highest or best in that category.
An (*) indicates the player has been in the league less than 3 years.
The average BSH attribute for all RE's in Madden 12 was 76.2.
The players that immediately jumped out at me in this spreadsheet, were: Peppers, Freeney, Umenyiora, and Dumervil. Again, these ratings are embarrassing. Remember long snapper John Denney? His 70 BSH is higher then that of Dumervil, Peppers, and Freeney.
Look at Trent Cole; he is among the top players at this position in sacks and was first among this group in both PFF ratings. Yet, he only has a 77 BSH which is just a tick above the Madden average for RE's.
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Here is the spreadsheet for DT's:
BLUE = highest or best in that category.
An (*) indicates the player has been in the league less than 3 years.
The average BSH attribute for all DT's in Madden 12 was 80.5.
The defensive tackles have the highest BSH attribute among the defensive lineman. There is a lot of inconsistency among these 22 players. Most defensive tackles don't rack up the sacks and in the case of the 3-4 Nose Tackles, they face a lot of double-teams. Because they play in the trenches, this is probably the toughest position when it comes to rating BSH. You may have noticed, that many of the stronger DT's have the higher BSH ratings among this group. Hmmm.
Here are a few Defensive Tackles who have lower OVR ratings, but have high STR and BSH attributes:
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After reviewing all of the data, I started to see a trend. It seems like many of the DE's and DT's with a higher strength (STR) attribute, also had a high BSH attribute. This didn't occur in all cases, but enough to make me want to do a scatter plot to see if there was a correlation among these 63 players.
Here is the scatter plot comparing the BSH attribute to STR:
It's widely accepted that any R^2 value 0.80 or higher is a strong correlation. The closer the R^2 is to 1.0 or -1.0, the stronger the relationship. The closer the R^2 value is to 0 the weaker the relationship.
You can see this data set has an R^2 of 0.7714. While not over 0.80, there is still a clear positive correlation. Some might argue it's a strong correlation even though it's slightly below the 0.80 benchmark. For more information on this type of statistical analysis check out this link: http://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/correlation.htm
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So what does all of this information tell us? Honestly, it's does tell us much. After going through all of the attributes and statistics I can't find anything truly consistent about how the "Madden ratings team" assigns the BSH attribute. I do believe the strength attribute plays a part, but it's not as much of a factor when you look at players with a lower overall. Strength is used by EA to manipulate the OVR ratings of some players, especially DT's. Both awareness and strength are tied as the #1 factor in the Defensive Tackle overall (OVR) formula. BSH, PMV, and FMV, are all tied as the 2nd most influential attributes in the OVR formula for DTs. So, both STR and BSH can be used to reward or penalize a defensive tackle, even if it's not a true representation of the actual NFL version of that player. For more on the Madden 12 OVR formula, check out this blog: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/01/madden-12-what-attributes-effect-ovr.html
Can an NFL player be strong, but not excel at shedding blocks? I believe the answer is clearly, "yes". Shedding blocks is not all about strength. With good technique a weaker player can shed blocks. There are several techniques that defensive lineman learn to increase there chances of shedding a block.
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Out of curiosity, I wanted to know how much the BSH attribute factors into simulated seasons and gameplay. I simulated three seasons with the NY Giants (Year 1 for all three, with the same schedule). First I turned the BSH attribute down to 0 for all of their DE's and DT's. I didn't change any other attributes. I turned injuries off, because I wanted the same players to be available for all three seasons.
After the first season, not one player on the defensive line recorded a sack. That's right, zero sacks for the defensive line with the BSH attribute at zero.
I restarted the franchise for the next simulated season. I turned the BSH attribute up to 99 for all of the defensive lineman. Again, I didn't change any other attributes. This time the defensive line accounted for 38.5 sacks.
For the third and final simulation, I restarted the season and turned the PMV and FMV up to 99 for all of the defensive lineman and set the BSH attribute to 0. Again, the defensive line did NOT record a single sack and they only accounted for 9 total tackles as a group. WOW.
Some people tell me that attributes don't matter. I believe several attributes matter and for simulation purposes, BSH plays a huge role in the both sack and tackle statistics. I know this was a drastic comparison by using 0 and 99, but it was the quickest way to see if there was an impact.
On top of the simulated seasons, I played 3 games against the CPU, one with each of these attribute settings. I even picked a horrible team to play against (Jacksonville), just to give my 0 BSH defensive line a chance. In the end, the 0 BSH teams had a very difficult time. They gave up a lot of big runs to MJD and put very little pressure on the QB. I even controlled several of my lineman and had very little success getting off the block. When I played with the 99 BSH team, they not only applied more pressure to the QB, they played the run much better.
The point with this experiment, is that having realistic (accurate) BSH ratings should be a priority for the ratings team. I believe this attribute is one of the most important for defensive players and it should be as accurate as possible. Players like Peppers and Mathis are not nearly as effective as they should be, due to having a poor BSH attribute. This needs to change.
So how should the BSH attribute be rated? First and foremost, the "Madden ratings team" needs to be expanded so evaluators can watch more game tape. In my opinion, watching tape and reviewing the best available statistics will produce the most accurate and consistent block shed ratings. The ratings team needs to be expanded not only because there is limited time between roster updates, but also by having more people involved will reduce bias. BSH is also an attribute that should NOT change week to week. I believe a player can improve, but this attribute should not be used just to manipulate a player's OVR rating. Accuracy and consistency in player ratings should always be the priority, regardless of the impact on OVR.
I would like to thank Clifton for his great idea and I hope I was able to shed some light on the BSH attribute. Hopefully, the Block Shed attribute can be more accurate and consistent when it comes to Madden 13 player ratings.
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*** View and vote on all of my Game Changer Ideas here: http://mgi-gc.easports.com/a/ideafactory.do?id=18503&mode=author&discussionFilter=activeStay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections. Thank you for following my blog. You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj
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