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This is the followup to my last blog which focused on Madden 12 speed and how it was determined for incoming rookies. Here is the link: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html
My previous blog describes the steps I took to evaluate and project speed the for the Madden 13 rookies. My first blog projected the speed (SPD) attribute of the incoming rookie running backs and cornerbacks. I strongly encourage you to read the first blog if you haven't already. My projections will make more since if you do.
In this blog I am projecting the speed (SPD) of the Madden 13 Quarterbacks and Inside Linebackers. I collected the speed ratings and 40 times of all Madden 12 rookie QBs, RBs, ILBs, and CBs (141 players total). I am fine tuning my formula as I collect more data, so there may be slight differences from my last blog as a result of that additional data.
Here is the new graph which now includes 141 rookies from Madden 12:
Remember the closer the points are to the trend-line, the stronger the correlation between 40 time and Madden 12 speed (SPD). Several points are actually in the exact same location, basically stacking on one another. My goal is to collect this data on all Madden 12 rookies, I still have several positions to go. As discussed in my previous blog, any R^2 value over 0.80 is considered a strong correlation. After doing two more positions, the R^2 value actually increased from 0.8494 to the current 0.866. The correlation is getting stronger as I add positions to the data. If you are interested, here is a link that explains this type of statistical analysis: http://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/correlation.htm
This predictions are based on Madden 12 rookie speed rating trends. I don't claim that it is 100%, but I believe in many cases it's going to be very close.
Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) attribute projections for the incoming rookies QBs (including all drafted QBs or undrafted free agents that have signed with a team):
* PLEASE NOTE - If a player didn't run at the combine, I used their Pro Day time. I consider Pro Day times less reliable since all players are not timed together like at the combine, but it's the best available data.
Robert Griffin III (#2 overall pick) received a 93 SPD in MUT12 (Madden Ultimate Team). His combine 40 of 4.41 resulted in me predicting a 92 SPD, which is pretty darn close. RGIII was the 2nd overall pick in the draft and had a rumored unofficial 40 time of 4.32. To be fair, RGIII was also a very accomplished high school track athlete who set several state records in Texas. There is a lot of information out there that would back up a 93 SPD rating.
Andrew Luck (#1 overall pick) received an 82 SPD in MUT12, I projected a 79 SPD. Being the #1 overall pick, I believe EA is giving Luck the benefit of the doubt here. Some at EA will call it game speed. If it was based on so-called "game speed", it would have been against college competition. There is a significant difference in the speed of the NFL game versus the college game. If you were going to ATTEMPT to rate a player based on "game speed" and Madden NFL, would it not make more sense to do it against NFL competition? In my previous blog, I showed that 40 times have a significant impact on rookie speed, despite mixed information on twitter from EA --- see my first speed blog. That said, it also shows that after the rookie year the correlation between 40 time and Madden speed weakens. It should be noted, that MUT attributes tend to be overrated and inflated in many cases, so 82 might not be Luck's final Madden 13 speed.
Update (5/12/12)*** There is some conflicting information Andrew Luck's MUT12 card speed. This image from PastaPadre.com, shows 78 SPD, which would be closer to my projection. Here is the link: http://www.pastapadre.com/2012/05/11/how-to-get-andrew-luck-for-use-in-madden-nfl-12-and-13-ultimate-team-modes
Here is a link that shows 82 SPD for Andrew Luck: http://maddenmatrix.com/2012/04/select-rookies-receive-madden-nfl-mut-cards/
The first card has several bloated attribute ratings (with the exception of SPD) and the other has more reserved attribute ratings, with the higher speed. This indicates that MUT rookies speeds are not guaranteed to be the initial Madden 13 rookie speed, but it's probably in the ball park.
Ryan Tannehill (#8 overall pick) received an 83 SPD in MUT12, my data projects an 80 SPD based on NFLDraftscout.com. It's in the ball park, but not dead on. Again, my research does not guarantee 100% accuracy, but these projections will be very close in most cases.
*** (Update 5/13/12) Please note - This article by NFL.com says Tannehill ran a 4.62: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/29/tannehill-runs-4-6...yard-dash-at-texas-am-pro-day/ . Based on my projections, a 4.62 would result in a 82 SPD. That makes his 83 SPD in MUT 12 a pretty fair rating.
Brandon Weeden (#22 overall pick) received a 64 SPD in MUT12. My data projects a 69 SPD, based on a Pro Day 40 of 4.89. He did not run at the combine which may have cost him in his MUT speed rating.
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Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) projections for the rookie Inside Linebackers:
Luke Kuechly (#9 overall pick) received an 86 SPD in MUT 12, I projected him at 84 based on his combine time. Kuechly was the only Inside Linebacker (MLB) taken in the first round and was well hyped going into the draft. Being a top ten pick gives him an edge over other rookies based on EA's previous rating trends. Again, I believe many of these projections will be right on or within a point or two, especially for the rookies draft after the first round.
No other Inside Linebacker (MLB's) received a MUT 12 rookie card.
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If you want to see the projections for the RB's and CB's, you can find them here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html
The projections are toward the end of the blog.
*** View and vote on all of my Game Changer Ideas here: http://mgi-gc.easports.com/a/ideafactory.do?id=18503&mode=author&discussionFilter=active
Stay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections. Thank you for following my blog. You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj
Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there. Guys do something special for your mom, grandma, and wife this weekend. Like they say, behind every good man(n), there is a great woman.
I will do two more positions next week, enjoy.
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