While sitting in my hunting blind during a recent Antelope (Pronghorn) hunt, I thought up the idea for this blog. My idea, is to follow the five rookie quarterbacks who will enter week 1 as the starter for their respective teams. Throughout the 2012 NFL season, I will track their Madden 13 attribute ratings (ups and downs) while comparing them to the best available statistics. Each week I will offer my thoughts regarding the accuracy of their Madden 13 player ratings.
For this blog post, I will list each of the five quarterbacks and their original Madden 13 attribute ratings (and any changes so far).
First, let's look at how all five stack up against each other based on their attribute ratings:
Yellow = Best among the five rookie starters.
Red = Attribute was increased since previous update.
PLEASE NOTE - For the next group of attributes, NO changes have been made from the original ratings.
So now that we've seen the attributes, lets look at statistics from week 1.
- Deep Accuracy (DAC) statistics were gathered from www.profootballfocus.com. PFF defines a deep attempt as a pass targeted 20 or more yards downfield (in the air). If a receiver catches a ball 5 yards downfield and goes 20 yards for a TD, that is not considered a deep target. Yards after catch do not factor into PFF's deep passing statistics.
- Pressure % is a www.profootballfocus.com statistic that is defined as "The percentage of dropbacks under pressure per total dropbacks."
- ESPN QBR statistics can be found here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr and the QBR is explained here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating
- QB FUM% is a statistics that I have calculated based on this equation, (rush fumbles + sack fumbles)/(rush attempts + sacks)
1. First, I don't support changing player attributes based on one game or one play. I would like to see EA and Donny Moore look at player performance in 4 week blocks. That said, we all know that is not the case right now, therefore I will comment on the weekly adjustments as the season progresses. I will not recommend weekly adjustments. After four games have been played, I will give my suggestions based on the current attribute ratings. I will continue to do that every four weeks until the end of the season.
2. The five rookie QB's combined for one win and four losses (RG III was the only winner). Four of the five rookie QB's were making their first NFL start on the road (only Weeden played at home).
3. Each QB had at least one fumble and only RGIII finished week 1 without an interception.
4. According to PFF, in week 1, no QB was under more pressure than Russell Wilson at 48.8%. On the other hand, 23 QB's faced more pressure than Robert Griffin III.
5. Based on 2011 defensive statistics, here are passing yards allowed and total yards allowed for each defense the rookies faced:
Luck at Chicago - #28 pass defense (254.1 YPG), #17 overall defense (350.4 YPG)
Griffin at New Orleans - #30 pass defense (259.8 YPG), #24 overall defense (368.4 YPG)
Wilson at Arizona - #17 pass defense (231.0 YPG), #18 overall defense (355.1 YPG)
Weeden vs Philadelphia - #10 pass defense (212.3 YPG), #8 overall defense (324.9 YPG)
Tannehill at Houston - #3 pass defense (189.7 YPG), #2 ovreall defense (285.7 YPG)
6. After looking at the 2011 defensive rankings, do you still view all of these performances the same.
Couldn't I argue, that much of RGIII's performance was a result of facing a horrible pass defense and very little pressure? On the other hand, Tannehill played against the #2 defense in the NFL during the 2011 season; could that have contributed to his horrible performance? Weeden faced a top 10 defense as well.
Wilson faced an average defense that sent a ton of pressure at him all game long. Luck put up the yards on the weak Chicago pass defense, but his interceptions really cost him.
While everyone is excited about Robert Griffin III and many believe he already deserves a significant increase, I would like to see him play against a stronger defense before jumping to conclusions. Here are some of the defenses he will face this season: NYG (twice), DAL (twice), PHI (twice), CIN, PIT and BAL.
7. After taken a deeper look, some of the success and failure of these young QB's can be explained by looking at the opposing defenses. As it sits right now, EA is going to continue to overreact when it comes to Madden 13 players ratings. Would it be the end of the world to wait 3 more weeks before making any adjustments (good or bad)? I don't think so.
By taken a more patient approach, I believe attributes would be more consistent and accurate. Also, Donny Moore will save time by not making unnecessary adjustments and that time could be spent produces more accurate attributes down the road. One example is all the work that needs to be down with the catch (CAT) attribute. The CAT attribute is one of the most inaccurate and inconsistent in the entire game, here is an example: Tight End catch (CAT) inconsistency.
Remember, this will be a reoccurring blog post as the season progresses. I will comment on each attribute change throughout the season and will give my suggestions based on 4 week evaluation periods.
Get ready, because based on the current Madden rating trends, I believe these rookie QB's will be on a "ratings roller-coaster."
Thanks for following my blog.
In case you missed my last blog about Madden "Monsters", check it out HERE