Sunday, June 3, 2012

Attribute Spotlight - Projecting Madden 13 rookie TE and OLB speeds.

ATTENTION - As of now Madden 13 will not give gamers the ability to hold fantasy drafts, online or offline.  If you would like to let your voice be heard by voting and commenting on the "fantasy draft" topic, please go to this link

This is the 4rd installment of my Madden 12 speed series.  It includes my OLB and TE speed projections for Madden 13.  For a full description of how I went about collecting the data and  projecting speeds (RB and CB included), please see my original speed blog at this link:

I strongly encourage you to read the first blog if you haven't already.  My projections will make more sense if you do.

I collected the speed ratings and 40 times of all Madden 12 rookie QBs, WRs, TEs, RBs, OLBs, ILBs, and CBs (299 players total).  I am fine tuning my formula as I collect more data, so there may be slight differences from my last blog as a result of that additional data.

Here is the new graph which now includes 299 rookies from Madden 12:

Remember the closer the points are to the trend-line, the stronger the correlation between 40 time and Madden 12 speed (SPD).  Several points are actually in the exact same location, basically stacking on one another.  My goal is to collect this data on all Madden 12 rookies, I still have several positions to go.  As discussed in my previous blog, any R^2 value over 0.80 is considered a strong correlation.  If you are interested, here is a link that explains this type of statistical analysis:

These predictions are based on Madden 12 rookie speed rating trends.  I don't claim that it is 100%, but I believe in many cases it's going to be very close.

Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) attribute projections for the incoming rookie OLBs (including all drafted, undrafted free agents who have signed with a team, and combine participants).

Courntey Upshaw received a 79 SPD for his MUT card, while I project a 77 SPD for Madden 13.  We all know MUT cards have inflated attributes, it's possible his speed will come down in the actual Madden 13 title.  Still, the projection is pretty close even if they use the MUT speed.

Melvin Ingram recived an 82 SPD for his MUT card.  He ran a horrible 40 at the combine of 4.79.  The fastest unofficial time I could find was 4.72.  His MUT card SPD is flat out inaccurate.  That said, his 3 cone drill and shuttle drill were very good at the combine, which shows good AGI and ACC.  I hope his Madden 13 speed is closer to reality.  EA tends to overrate 1st rounders, keeping his speed at 82 would be a perfect example of that.


Here are my Madden 13 speed projections for Tight Ends (TE):

Coby Fleener was the only incoming rookie TE to receive a MUT card.  Fleener was giving an 88 SPD on his card, I projected a 87 SPD for Madden 13.  That is very close.

If you want to see the projections for the Madden 13 rookie RB's and CB's, you can find them here:

QB and ILB (MLB) speed projections:

WR speed projections:

*** View and vote on all of my Game Changer Ideas here:

Stay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections.  Thank you for following my blog.  You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj

Have a great week.

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