Position Spotlight - Kicker's KAC/KPW

    Ok, first I want to urge all of you to stay with me on this one.  There are a lot of numbers and tables, but over the course of this post I will try to make some sense of it for you.  I decided to do kickers because of a request I received on the MaddenTips.com forum.  I wanted to wait until the regular season was over to put this together.  Please note, that do to time constraints I couldn't do every kicker in the league.  I selected 18 kickers total, including:  the top 5 in kick accuracy (KAC) in Madden 12 (Gould, Kaeding, Bailey, Janikowski, Barth), two rookies, some high profile kickers, and lesser known kickers.  What you should find after going through this post is that the kickers are rated inconsistently in KAC and kick power (KPW).  The perception of a kicker and the reality based on statistics do not always paint the same picture.

    This spotlight is based on regular season stats only.  I understand that by leaving out playoff stats it leaves the door open for a little more debate.  That said, I think these numbers speak for themselves for the most part.  I have included field goal kicking accuracy numbers from 2011, 2011-2009, and career statistics for all 18 kickers.  I started out by just looking at KAC, but thought it would be interesting to include some stats that might indicate KPW.  Below are my tables with definitions for each stat:

All statistics were collected from NFL.com and Stats LLC.

R = Rookie
* = Clutch trait (Only 3 NFL Kickers have the clutch trait in Madden 12)

KAC = Madden 12 kick accuracy
KPW = Madden 12 kick power

FGM = FGs made
FGA = FGs attempted
% = % of FGs made

Red = Highest
Green = Lowest

2011 Regular Season Only
Name Team KAC FGM FGA % Barth TB 93 26 28 92.9% Bironas* TEN 93 29 32 90.6% Henery - R PHI 85 24 27 88.9% Janikowski OAK 94 31 35 88.6% Gould CHI 96 28 32 87.5% Bailey - R DAL 95 32 37 86.5% Crosby GB 87 24 28 85.7% Vinatieri* IND 89 23 27 85.2% Akers SF 90 44 52 84.6% Rackers HOU 88 32 38 84.2% Hauschka SEA 85 25 30 83.3% Hanson DET 88 24 29 82.8% Tynes NYG 87 19 24 79.2% Longwell* MIN 93 22 28 78.6% Cundiff BAL 84 28 37 75.7% Brown STL 86 21 28 75.0% Mare CAR 85 21 28 75.0% Avg / % 89.2 453 540 83.9%

* Please note Kaeding missed 2011 with injury.

2009 - 2011
Name	Team	KAC	FGM	FGA	%	FGM	FGA	%
Bironas*	TEN	93	80	90	88.9%
Henery - R	PHI	85	24	27	88.9%	68	76	89%	College career
Rackers	HOU	88	75	85	88.2%
Longwell*	MIN	93	65	74	87.8%
Vinatieri*	IND	89	56	64	87.5%
Kaeding	SD	95	55	63	87.3%
Bailey - R	DAL	95	32	37	86.5%	57	72	79%	College career
Janikowski	OAK	94	90	105	85.7%
Gould	CHI	96	77	90	85.6%
Akers	SF	90	108	127	85.0%
Mare	CAR	85	71	84	84.5%
Barth	TB	93	63	75	84.0%
Tynes	NYG	87	65	79	82.3%
Cundiff	BAL	84	72	89	80.9%
Hanson	DET	88	57	71	80.3%
Brown	STL	86	73	91	80.2%
Hauschka	SEA	85	40	50	80.0%
Crosby	GB	87	73	92	79.3%
Avg / %		89.6	1176	1393	84.4%

Career Accuracy
Name	Team	KAC	FGM	FGA	%	FGM	FGA	%
Henery - R	PHI	85	24	27	88.9%	68	76	89%	College career
Kaeding	SD	95	173	200	86.5%
Bailey - R	DAL	95	32	37	86.5%	57	72	79%	College career
Bironas*	TEN	93	189	219	86.3%
Gould	CHI	96	187	218	85.8%
Barth	TB	93	73	87	83.9%
Longwell*	MIN	93	361	434	83.2%
Vinatieri*	IND	89	387	467	82.9%
Akers	SF	90	338	411	82.2%
Hanson	DET	88	463	565	81.9%
Mare	CAR	85	350	431	81.2%
Tynes	NYG	87	157	194	80.9%
Brown	STL	86	220	272	80.9%
Rackers	HOU	88	264	330	80.0%
Janikowski	OAK	94	293	368	79.6%
Crosby	GB	87	131	165	79.4%
Hauschka	SEA	85	41	52	78.8%
Cundiff	BAL	84	132	172	76.7%
Avg / %		89.6	3815	4649	82.1%

* Please note for Career, I highlighted Kaeding because Henery is only a rookie.

Observations:

1.  How in the world does the rookie kicker Bailey have a higher KAC than Bironas.  While Bailey had a very good rookie season (10th in NFL for FG accuracy this year), I don't think that earns the right to have a better accuracy than Bironas.  Is this more Dallas Cowboy bias?

2.  Compare the two rookie kickers Bailey undrafted (95 KAC) and Henery drafted 4th round (85 KAC).  Henery had a better FG% this season (on fewer attempts) and was by far the better college kicker, so how is it possible that Bailey is rated 10 KAC points higher than Henery?  Notice that Henery was 88.9% this year and 89% in his college career, that is consistency.  Henery was the only kicker drafted in the 2011 draft and no kickers were drafted in the 2010 draft.  Neither draft position, college history, or 2011 NFL statistics have helped Henery in his KAC.

3.  Robbie Gould has the highest KAC in Madden 12 with 96, yet these statistics don't necessarily support that rating.  He is accurate, but should he be the best?  Bironas was better than Gould this year, the last three years, and slightly better in career %.  Keading was hurt this season, but has a better three year % and career % than Gould.  You will find out later that Gould is the most accurate in this group when it comes to field goals of 50 yards or more.  Is his deep kicking accuracy enough to earn the highest KAC in Madden, or does Gould get a boost because he kicks in the windy city of Chicago eight times a year?  To be far I looked at his home and road splits. For his career Gould is 83.6% at Soldier Field and 88.0% on the road.  That is very good on the road to say the least.

4.  After looking at all three tables, it doesn't appear that the KAC attribute is based on just this year, last three years or career numbers.  KAC is all over the place, with the exception of the worst kickers who seem to be rated pretty well.

5.  It also doesn't appear that the home (outdoors or doom) stadium comes into play with KAC ratings either.

6.  I think a very good argument could be made that Bironas should have the highest KAC in Madden based on this year, the last three years, and his career.  Bironas has be incredibly consistent.

7.  Another interesting thing to note, is the the combined FG % of these kickers this year was 83.9% and over the last three years was 84.4%.  Pretty consistent even though some kickers in the group fluctuated quite and bit in those time periods.


- Now we are going to take a look at career long (50 or more yards) FG accuracy:

50+ Kick Accuracy
				CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR
Name	Team	KPW	KAC	50+FGM	50+FGA	50+%	LONG
Gould	CHI	92	96	11	15	73%	57
Bironas*	TEN	96	93	21	29	72%	60
Brown	STL	98	86	28	43	65%	58
Longwell*	MIN	91	93	24	39	62%	55
Barth	TB	91	93	6	10	60%	55
Kaeding	SD	91	95	10	17	59%	57
Hanson	DET	87	88	50	90	56%	56
Tynes	NYG	89	87	10	18	56%	53
Janikowski	OAK	99	94	36	66	55%	63
Rackers	HOU	94	88	26	48	54%	57
Akers	SF	93	90	22	41	54%	57
Bailey - R	DAL	91	95	2	4	50%	51
Crosby	GB	98	87	12	24	50%	58
Hauschka	SEA	94	85	3	6	50%	54
Henery - R	PHI	94	85	1	2	50%	51
Vinatieri*	IND	90	89	12	25	48%	57
Mare	CAR	93	85	19	43	44%	54
Cundiff	BAL	97	84	5	19	26%	56
Avg / %						55%

Copyright © 2012 STATS LLC. All Rights Reserved.


Observations:

1.  There is actually some consistency on this one.  Gould shines here, even though it's only 15 attempts and at the same time Cundiff is horrible at long FGs and is KAC supports that.

2.  The KAC attribute can't just be based on long FG %.  I suggest the EA Madden ratings team consider using similar stats for long FG accuracy to create a new kicker attribute called LKA (Long Kick Accuracy).  This LKA would come into play on all kicks 50 or more yards.  This way kickers get credit for their long kicking accuracy and those who are not as good would pay the price in LKA.

    When looking at long field goal kicking accuracy, I believe a 3 year or career statistic is best since most kickers don't attempt a large number of kicks over 50 yards in just one season.

3.  Should long kicking accuracy and statistics play a role in kick power?  I would say yes and no.  It can't be the only factor.  I don't think it's a coincidence that Janikowski has the highest kick power in this group as well as the longest FG made at 63 yards.  That said, I think these stats could potentially show inaccuracy in the KPW attribute.  Someone like Hanson from Detroit has a long history of hitting FGs of 50 yards or more, yet he only has an 87 KPW.  I think that is hard to justify at this point.  I will look deeper into that with my next table.


Now we will look at average kickoff distances.


KO Avg = Kickoff distance average for the season

			2011	2010
Name	Team	KPW	KO Avg	KO Avg
Janikowski	OAK	99	63.3	65.5
Brown	STL	98	65.5	66.7
Crosby	GB	98	65.0	61.6
Cundiff	BAL	97	67.8	71.1
Bironas*	TEN	96	64.0	66.7
Rackers	HOU	94	62.8	66.2
Hauschka	SEA	94	66.3	61.2
Henery - R	PHI	94	65.0
Akers	SF	93	66.4	64.7
Mare	CAR	93	64.9	65.0
Gould	CHI	92	64.2	64.5
Longwell*	MIN	91	64.8	62.3
Barth	TB	91		61.7	No KO's 11'
Kaeding	SD	91		62.9	Injuried 11'
Bailey - R	DAL	91	65.3
Vinatieri*	IND	90			No KO's both
Tynes	NYG	89	65.9	62.5
Hanson	DET	87	66.3	61.6
Avg / %		93.2	65.2	64.3

Observations: 

1.  After going through these numbers, I found that some players improved their kickoff distance this year while others actually had a lower kickoff distance.  This was interesting to me, because I didn't know how moving the NFL kickoff position up 5 yards was going to impact these numbers.  You can see the group average improved (due to kickers like Hauschka +5.1 and Hanson + 4.7), but some kickers in the group decreased this year (like Rackers, Cundiff, and Janikowski)

2.  It's 75 yards from the new kickoff point at the 35 yard line and the back of the endzone.   This means that while some kicks go out of the endzone, this years average is just past the goal-line.  Last years average for these players would have put the starting point for the return on the 5.7 yard line, since the kickoff was from the 30.  Of course this isn't all of the NFL kickers, so this is not exact for the entire NFL.

3. I think average kickoff distance together with long field goal kicking stats can provide a good guide for rating KPW in Madden.  You can see that while Hanson was lower on this list last year when it came to kickoff distance, he improved dramatically this year.  Hanson was actually tied this season for 10th in the NFL for longest kickoff average with Hauschka at 66.3 yards.  Hauschka has received credit for that, but Hanson has not.

4.  While Cundiff can't hit the broadside of a barn when attempting a FG at 50 or more yards, he booms kickoffs.  This is why you can't just look at long field goal statistics to determine KPW.  This is also why I think an LKA (Long Kick Accuracy) attribute would be a very good addition to the game.  While Cundiff has the leg strength to attempt a long FG, his accuracy drops like a rock at that point.  If you subtracted Cundiff's FGM and FGA of 50 yards or longer, he would be an 83% FG kicker instead of his career 77%.  We have SAC, MAC, and DAC for QB's in the game, why not have LKA (Long Kick Accuracy) for Kickers.

5.  If you based Janikowski's kick power off of his average kickoff distance he would not have the highest KPW in the game at 99.  In Janikoski's case, maybe there should be a kickoff KPW and field goal KPW.  You can see that Janikowski was below average for this group in 2011 and was slightly above average in 2010.

6.  How should KPW be rated for player like Vinatieri and Barth who do not perform kickoffs any longer?  Should they automatically get a lower KPW?  That is a tough one.

    OK, that is all folks.  I know it's a lot of information.  I basically covered three things in this blog: overall FG kick accuracy, long FG kick accuracy, and average kickoff distance.  With all three of these statistics combined, I think Madden can have more consistent and true to life kicking attributes (KPW, KAC, LKA).  Take care and thanks for following my blogs.


*** Please feel free to let me know if you see a typo in the attributes or statistics, I will fix it immediately.  Thank you.

Stay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections.  Thank you for following my blog.  You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj