Picks 6 through 10 can be found here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/03/looking-back-on-2011-nfl-draft-1st_25.html
Picks 11 through 15 can be found here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/04/looking-back-on-2011-nfl-draft-1st.html
Picks 16 through 20 can be found here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/04/looking-back-on-2011-nfl-draft-1st_08.html
Picks 21 through 26 can be found here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/04/looking-back-on-2011-nfl-draft-1st_15.html
To give you a short introduction, I am comparing the original rookie ratings to the final rookie ratings in Madden 12. I will be giving EA a grade on these ratings/attributes. As the release the of Madden 13 approaches, I believe EA still has plenty of time to make improvements to how they rate player attributes. There is no reason to stand still and be complacent. All it takes is a open mind and a willingness to be the best despite the absence of competition.
** Look past Overall (OVR) rating ***
Blue = increase in ratings/attributes
Red = decrease in ratings/attributes
M12 rating = Madden 12 Player Ratings
Original = First Madden 12 Rating.
Final = Final Madden 12 Rating.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#27 Jimmy Smith (CB), Baltimore Ravens
Jimmy Smith was the 3rd and final Cornerback taken in the first round of the 2011 draft. He was viewed a being very talented, but some off the field issues caused him to slip. EA gave him an elite MCV and PRS attribute from day 1. Coming out of college he was considered to be very good in press/man coverage, but not as comfortable in zone coverage. EA still gave him a very good ZCV attribute despite what the scouting reports said. Smith was also viewed as not only willing to defend the run, good at it.
Here are Smith's 2011 stats (per NFL.com):
12 regular season games (3 starts), 20 tackles (all solo), 8 Pdefs, and 2 Ints.
2 playoff games (1 start), 3 tackles (1 solo), 1 Pdef, 1 Int.
Smith missed four regular season games due to injury (high ankle sprain).
According to Profootballfocus.com, Smith only participated in 254 regular season snaps (118 CB's had more snaps). Smith also saw 81 snaps during the playoffs.
PFF gave Smith a final regular season overall grade of 6.3 (which is very good, but again a very limited sample), a coverage grade of 3.4, and a grade of 2.0 against the run. QB's had a 74.9 rating against Smith and completed 48.5% of their passes for 3 TD's. He didn't miss a tackle during the regular season.
Here is how Smith stacks up against other Madden 12 CB's final attributes:
75 BSH (2nd highest) Also higher than all but 5 FS's and 13 SS's including Chancellor and Roman Harper.
92 MCV (T-7th highest)
86 ZCV (T-11th highest)
93 PRS (T-5th highest)
71 TAK (T-3rd highest)
70 POW (T-8th highest)
70 STR (2nd highest) His strength is also higher than, 44 ROLB, 50 MLB, 39 LOLB, 1 DT, 13 RE, 4 LE, 2 C.
Let' take a closer look at how strength (STR) is determined for Madden rookies. Some think it's based on the combine bench press results. Well, Smith was 2nd among CB's at the combine with 24 reps. That might explain his 70 STR. Not so fast, Marcus Gilchrist (Chargers) was #1 out of all CB's at the 2011 combine with 26 reps and he only received a 50 STR attribute. Both Jalil Brown and Byron Maxwell did 24 reps (tied with Smith), but Brown only received a 63 STR and Maxwell received a 59. Ok, so that doesn't explain how Smith got a 70 STR.
Let's look at a few rookies at a different position. Aldon Smith did 20 reps at the same combine, and he is rated an 87 STR in Madden 12 (rightfully so, if you've seen him push OT's around like rag dolls). DE Parnell McPhee (Ravens) did 20 reps as well, and received a 91 STR attribute.
So it's clear, combine bench press results don't define rookie STR attributes (nor should they be the sole factor). Was Smith giving the benefit of the doubt because he was a 1st rounder and the other three CB's were not? Hard to say. Was there something in his game tape that supports such a high STR attribute? I didn't see it. On the flip side, was there something in the game tape of the other 3 CB's that supported a lower STR attribute. I don't think so. It should also be noted that STR does not effect the OVR rating of a CB in Madden 12.
I give EA a "D" for Smith's final Madden 12 attributes. First, they didn't bother to lower his injury attribute from the 90 it started with. I think missing 4 games is enough to support a decrease below 90 (elite). Somewhere in the 85-86 range would seem more accurate. I don't think he has earned an elite MCV attribute, especially with such a low number of snaps and his ZCV had no business starting at 84, let alone receiving a boost to 86. This is EA giving a player a boost based on a few good plays (Int's in this case). Should attributes really be increased or decreased based on a few plays? There is no need to talk more about the STR attribute, that is clearly a mess. BSH is also very questionable, just go look at the BSH attributes of DE's Freeney (67 BSH) and Peppers (68), both are lower than Smith. Since Madden Football doesn't take size/weight (physics) into account, Smith can shed a block better than some elite pass rushers. Are you kidding me?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#28 Mark Ingram (RB), New Orleans
Coming to the NFL he was considered a competitive RB with a nose for the endzone (46 TD's in college), but not necessarily good in short yardage. He was viewed as having good strength and an aggressive running style, yet not someone who will push the pile. Ingram was consider average in the passing game, but above average as a pass blocker.
Most would consider his rookie season a disappointment.
Here are his 2011 regular season stats (per NFL.com):
10 games (4 starts), 122 ATT, 474 Yards, 3.9 YPC, 5 rushing TDs, 1 fum & 11 REC for 46 yards.
The first thing that jumps out to me is that Ingram only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. The Saints as a team averaged 4.9 YPC. Every RB on the Saints roster had a better average (excluding FB Jed Collins), hell even Drew Bress had a higher YPC with 4.1. We can't just look at YPC, but I think the fact that Ingram averaged one full yard less than the team says a lot about his season.
The next thing that jumped out at me, was that Ingram only averaged 4.2 yards per reception, which was worst among Saints RB's (including FB Jed Collins who averaged 4.5 YPR).
On the positive side, he did tie (P. Thomas) for the team lead in rushing TD's with 5.
His rushing total of 474 yards was 5th among 2011 rookies and he averaged 47.4 yard per game. If he had played 16 games at his current pace, he would have totaled 758 rushing yards (still less than fellow rookie DeMarco Murray's total of 897 in only 13 games. In fact, had Ingram played in all 16 games, 758 yards would have only ranked 26th in the NFL. As it stands now, his actual total of 474 rushing yards ranked 49th in the NFL.
Over the course of the season, Ingram's attributes remained the same. If you consider his 2011 performance and his poor combine times (40 yard dash time of 4.62, 3 cone drill time of 7.13, and a 20 yd shuttle of 4.62 - which was worst among combine RB's), I don't think a 95 ACC can be justified.
ProFootballFocus.com gave Ingram a final overall grade of 3.4 (40th out of 69 RB's with at least 219 regular season snaps). PFF gave him an elusiveness rating of 21.7 which ranked 46th out of 56 RB's with at least 87 attempts. On the bright side, Ingram had zero drops on 11 "catchable" targets.
I give EA a "D" for Ingram's final attribute ratings. His ACC, AGI, and BCV are all a joke and have no business being in the "elite" 90+ range. He should be well below 90 in all three of those attributes. EA's lack of research and reliance on perception resulted in overrated attributes for Mark Ingram.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#29 Gabe Carimi (OT), Chicago Bears
** Please note - Carimi was switched from LT to RT which caused his OVR to increase, despite having decreases in other attributes. This is another example of the horrible OVR formula. While RT's are typically not considered as good as LT's, there is no excuse for this type of OVR rating system.
Carimi came into the 2011 draft viewed as a very good offensive tackle. The word "beast" was used to describe him several times, as well as the phrase "non-stop motor". He was thought to be a better run blocker than pass blocker, and there were some concerns with his footwork. Carimi was also considered to be somewhat injury prone due to knee injuries in 2008 and 2010.
Carimi played and started in the first two games of the 2011 NFL season for the Bears (at RT), but he had yet another knee injury that cost him the rest of his rookie season. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he participated in only 100 snaps, gave up two QB pressures and 1 sack. His overall grade from PFF was -0.3. That is not a big enough sample size to properly grade Carimi's rookie season.
I am basically grading EA's original rookie ratings since Carimi didn't log many snaps as a rookie. I give EA a "B+" for Carimi's final rookie rating/attributes. Donny clearly did his homework on this one, but the broken OVR formula prevents me from giving him an A (the 6 point OVR increase is unacceptable). OVR needs to be a stand alone ranking with no connection to attributes until they fix the formulas. I've said it 1000 times.
Last night (4/28/12), Donny replied to one of my tweets. Here is the interaction:
If you have followed me for any period of time, you know I have given them several specifics. This is my 27th blog and in several of them I have discussed the broken OVR formula and the need to either fix it or make it a stand alone ranking. Obviously, those blogs have fallen of deaf ears. I than tweeted him some examples with no further response from him. The point is, it's clear that Donny doesn't see the problem, or he doesn't fully understand the differences in positions and schemes throughout the NFL.
While, I appreciate the interaction, I would rather see acknowledgement that there is a problem with the OVR formula and that they are trying to find ways to improve it. This is a classic case and not being able to admit there is a problem. Madden 13 player ratings and attributes will not get any better if the #1 ratings person (Donny Moore) doesn't see a problem. I was sad to see his response, but it has motivated me even more. Hopefully, one of my blogs will make sense to Donny and he will realize that improvements can and should be made to the OVR formula.
Please keep an open mind Donny. If I need to do more research so that you can fully understand the problem, please let me know.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#30 Muhammad Wilkerson (DE), New York Jets
Simply put, the Jets hit a home run with Wilkerson in the 2011 draft. Unfortunately, the OVR formula for Madden 12 player ratings doesn't recognize the deference between a 4-3 DE and 3-4 DE. The Jet's run a 3-4 defense, with means Wilkerson's primary role is to fill gaps and defend the run.
2011 Final Regular Season Stats: 16 gms (16 starts), 49 tak (35 solo), 3.0 sacks, 1 safety, 2 Pdef.
Coming out of college, Wilkerson was viewed as both a run stopper and pass rusher. In the Jets defense, he thrived at defending the run, but struggled at rushing the passer.
ProFootballFocus gave Wilkerson a final overall grade of 4.7 (7.9 for run defense and -1.8 for pass rush). One of the great things about PFF, is they rank 3-4 DE's against each other, not against 4-3 DEs. I wish EA would do the same, as well as ranking 3-4 OLB's against other 3-4 OLB's, not against 4-3 OLB's. PFF ranked Wilkerson 17th overall among 32 DE's (3-4 scheme) who had at least 287 snaps (he had 606 snaps). He ranked 7th against the run and 18th against the pass (out of the same 32 DE's).
The one area were Wilkerson struggled the most, was the act of tackling. He missed more tackles than any other 3-4 defensive end with 8 (missing a tackle every 6 attempts), yet EA gave him an increase in his TAK attribute. Just how bad was Wilkerson at tackling? PFF collected tackle statistics for all 63 DE's (3-4) who played at least one snap; the average 3-4 DE missed a tackle every 16 attempts compared to Wilkerson who missed a tackle every 6 attempts. That is horrible. This isn't an isolated case of EA producing an inaccurate TAK attribute; TAK is one of the most inaccurate and inconsistent attributes in the entire game. If the TAK attribute determines the players ability to tackle in Madden 12, than missed tackles has to be a factor in determining the attribute. Without considering missed tackles, the TAK attribute rating is no more than a guess, based only on tackles made. TAK is also frequently used to manipulate OVR, with a complete disregard for the players actual ability to tackle. Attribute accuracy should matter, especially if you are trying to simulate reality. (*** So that is one more example for Donny, of course I have told him this several times).
I give EA a "C+" for Wilkerson's final attribute ratings. In no way should he have received an increase in TAK. His PMV should also be decreased a few more points. Since the OVR formula doesn't give 3-4 DE's the credit they deserve when it comes to run defense, AWR (a 16 pt increase) was the only way for EA to satisfy the fans who expected an OVR increase. Wilkerson had a great rookie year, with the exception of missing tackles. Since his primary objective in the Jets defense is to defend the run and fill gaps, the lack of pass rush isn't as disappointing.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#31 Cameron Heyward (DE), Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming into the draft, Heyward was considered an average pass rusher and above average at defending the run. After being considered a top 15 pick, he slid to the bottom of the first round. The general thought was that he could play DE or DT in a 4-3 defense and was more of a DE in a 3-4 defense.
Final 2011 Regular Season Stats: 16 games (0 starts), 11 tackles (10 solo), 1 sack, 1 pdef.
2011 Playoff Stats: 1 game, 4 tackles (3 solo).
Jets fans probably expected more from Heyward during his rookie season, but he was stuck behind starters Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood. Keisel was limited in the playoff game due to injury, which resulted in more snaps for Heyward.
Get this, Ziggy Hood received the worst overall grade from PFF for a 3-4 DE with -20.5 (the next closest was -13.3). My question is why wasn't Heyward able to unseat Hood in the starting lineup? That might say something about his development. Although, historically the Steelers have stuck with veterans on defense leaving the younger players fewer opportunities to take the field.
In limited time during the season, PFF gave Heyward a 0.9 overall grade (2.1 versus the run and -2.4 at rushing the passer). This is another case of having a very small sample to evaluate a player's rookie season. The fact that he couldn't get on the field doesn't necessarily mean he won't develop into a good player.
So once again, I am basically grading the original rating/attributes. Based on my research I agree with most of the original attributes, with the exception of the 93 BSH. That is an elite BSH for a player that has not earned it on an NFL field. Certain attributes like SPD, AGI, and ACC transfer over from the college game to the pro game, but BSH is not one of those attributes. NFL offensive lineman are on a different level than college lineman and I believe a 90+ BSH needs to be earned in the NFL. A mid 80's BSH rating would make more since at this point. EA needs to leave rookies room to prove themselves.
I give EA a "B+" for Heyward's initial and final attribute ratings (disregarding OVR due to formula).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#32 Derek Sherrod (OT), Green Bay Packers
** Please note - Sherrod is another tackle who was switched from LT to RT in Madden 12 and received an OVR increase despite decreases in other attributes.
The Packers selected Derek Sherrod as the last pick in the 1st round. He only played in 5 games during the season and he was unable to crack the starting lineup. In December, Sherrod broke his leg which ended his season.
Sherrod was not considered a powerful Tackle coming into the draft, although he was viewed as having good footwork. NFL.com viewed him as a backup that could possibly become a starter and considered him a day 3 prospect. ESPN.com (Scouts Inc.) thought more of him than NFL.com and ranked him 5th among offensive tackles going into the draft. Both sources thought he had good awareness when it comes to run blocking, but that he needed to improve awareness in pass blocking.
According to PFF, Sherrod only participated in 115 snaps and recieved an overall grade of -5.1 (-2.5 pass block and -1.2 run block). He gave up 6 QB pressures, 1 sack, and was called for 2 penalties in his limited action. Again, this is a very small sample. Although, it does appear that he struggled when givien the opportunity to play.
I give EA a "C+" for Sherrod's final attribute ratings. My biggest problem is the AWR decrease of -9, which was obviously just to bring down OVR since he changed positions. The broken OVR strikes again in this case, it forced EA to drop his AWR even though he was viewed as having average to above average awareness (very good in the run game and needed work in pass game).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After evaluating all 32 first round picks, here is the breakdown of how I graded EA (Donny Moore):
Letter grade = # of times given
A = 2
A- = 2
B+ = 4
B = 2
B- = 2
C+ = 4
C = 5
C- = 1
D+ = 1
D = 6
D- = 3
Total GPA = 2.2 for a "C"
So for the entire first round, I give EA and Donny Moore a "C" for their final Madden 12 rookie ratings/attributes. Remember, this is after an entire season. I am not grading them on the initial attributes (in most cases). The beauty of the in season roster updates, is the ability to correct attributes and provide a more accurate representation of the player's actual ability. Honestly, going in I thought it would be much worse, so I am happy to give them an average grade. That said, there is plenty of room for improvement going into Madden 13.
For Madden 13 player ratings to be more accurate and consistent, EA needs to have an open mind. There are several problems, but the biggest issue is the OVR formula and how it impacts the decision making of the player rater (in this case, Donny Moore). They are too concerned with OVR and the formula is not good enough to allow accurate attributes. EA and Donny Moore have trained fans to only look at OVR, this is their way of taking your attention off of the inaccurate and inconsistent attributes. I urge all of your to look deeper than OVR and look at player attributes. If fans show EA and Donny Moore that attribute accuracy is important to them, they will have no choice but to address the OVR formula in the future. By the looks of the Madden Ultimate Team rookie cards (just released for 2012 first rounders), there is no change in the formula at this point. I think it's safe to assume that Madden 13 will have the same broken formula. My goal this year, will be to raise fan (and EA) awareness when it comes to the broken OVR formula, resulting in a fixed formula going into Madden 14. Come on Donny, I know you are listening.
You can follow me on twitter @mannmicj
Thanks for following my blogs, have a great week.
No comments:
Post a Comment