Tuesday, July 31, 2012

NEW Madden 13 player ratings are starting to be released by EA. My thoughts on the top 10 QB's.

8/3/12 UPDATE - EA released the full QB attributes for ALL QB's.  Here is the link:  http://www.easports.com/madden-nfl/news/article/complete-qb-ratings-in-madden-nfl-13

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Today, EA released the first set of Madden 13 player ratings.  In this video:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkrJL1mMTHM&feature=youtu.be Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk revealed the top 10 QB's in Madden 13 - based on overall (OVR).  If you have followed me for any period of time, then you know I can't stand OVR or the current formula.  I have suggested for some time now that OVR needs to go way and EA should start using a stand alone ranking with no connection to attributes.  Attributes are consistently manipulated specifically to hold overalls down, despite statistics and tape that suggest the opposite.  The opposite happens as well, attributes are inflated to increase overall.  This can be seen in all positions throughout the game.  So what's wrong with that?  Well, by manipulating attributes to reach a targeted overall, the attributes tend to be inconsistent and inaccurate for all positions.  EA has conditioned fans to look at OVR first and this takes the focus off of the inconsistencies in the attributes themselves.  "Look beyond overall, it will open your eyes to how bad some of these ratings are."

EA basically uses OVR as a ranking system.  That being the case, they should just make it a stand alone ranking with no connection to attributes.  Let folks debate over who is #1 at each position, while assigning attributes based on statistics and on the field play.  Attributes should be based on reality, not popularity.  By having a stand alone ranking system, fans and players will have their bragging rights, but attributes will not have to be manipulated to change a ranking.  Each and every attribute should be rated as accurately and objectively as possible, regardless of OVR or RANK.

EA, stop handcuffing the player ratings staff and get rid of the overall (OVR) formula once and for all.


Ok, I will stop preaching now.  Let's look at some numbers.  I am going to take a 3 year look at each of these QB's and provide my take on this list.

Below are the top ten Madden 13 Quarterbacks based only on OVR (let's call it what it is, a ranking).

Best = The best in a category, out of these 10 QB's only.

Red = The worst in a category, out of these 10 QB's only.

SkFum% =  Fumbles caused by sacks, divided # of times sacked (fumble per sack ratio.)

RFum% = Rushing fumbles divided by the # of carries (fumble per attempt ratio.)


* P. Manning missed the entire 2011 season.
* M. Vick was not a starter in 2009.



I included Schaub, Ryan, Cutler, and Flacco for comparison.  Some people might think they belong in the top 10.

Observations:

1. Based on these statistics, there is a clear difference between the top 3 QB's and the rest of the group.  That said, why are Eli and Big Ben so close to the top 3?  Is it because they have two Super Bowl wins and the others don't.

BTW - In the last 3 years, no one in this group puts the ball on the ground more than Eli, plus he has a higher INT % then the rest of this group.  Winning the Super Bowl is fine and dandy, but should the ratings be based on the Super Bowl Eli or the regular season Eli.  Should a Madden player rating only consider the good times or should it also include the bad.  I believe it should include the good and the bad.  Finding the right balance is key to producing objective and accurate player ratings.

2.  Should one missed season really cost Peyton Manning that much?

3.  Doesn't Matt Schaub deserve to be in this group?  I think a strong argument could be made that Matt Schuab should be in the top 10 ahead of Michael Vick.

4.  Ok Cowboy fans.  Is Romo getting the shaft?  He does a great job at protecting the ball, completes passes at a very high rate, and had the 4th best QB rating the last 3 years.  Shouldn't the gap between Romo and Vick be more than one spot?

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* Some people don't put much stock into statistics, so lets look at this a different way.






* Stafford was select as a Pro Bowl Alternate in 2011.

Again, these figures are based ONLY on the last three seasons from 2009 to 2011.

Observations:

1.  The top three QB's have qualified for the playoffs each of the last three seasons.  They've gone to multiple Pro Bowls and have been selected to at least one All-Pro Team.  The only other All-Pro the last three years is Peyton Manning.

2.  While Eli is tied for the most playoff wins in the group, he only qualified to make the playoffs once in the last 3 seasons.  Of course, Super Bowl XLVI is still fresh in everyone's mind; some people may have forget the ups and downs that have defined much of  Eli's career.

3.  Outside of the top three, only Joe Flacco has made the playoffs each of the last three years.  Flacco doesn't get much credit for those playoff appearances, that typically goes to his dominate defense.

4.  During the playoffs, we witnessed some roller-coaster player attribute changes.  If playoff games give players a boost in attributes, then what about players who don't make the playoffs as often, like:  Romo, Rivers, and Vick.  I believe the larger body of work should have the most impact on player ratings.  It drives me nuts, when I hear people say the playoffs are what really matter.  This is the NFL not the NBA.  There are only 16 games in a regular season and every one of them matters.  When it comes to player attributes, one great catch during a prime-time playoff game should not be valued more then the same great catch in a locally televised week 7 game.  I know several people disagree with me on that, but to reach the goal of consistent player ratings/attributes, this needs to be the mindset of the folks on the Madden ratings team.  The "knee-jerk" style ratings system, does not build confidence in Madden fans (see:  Tim Tebow).
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One more group of tables to look at.  The first table shows the difference between the final  Madden 12 OVR and the New Madden 13 OVR.   The second table shows the origial Madden 12 OVR compared to the new OVR.  I included the rankings as well.

Remember, my goal is to get rid of OVR and go to a stand alone ranking system that has no connection to player attributes.

Here are the tables:


Observations:

1.  This table really illustrates the hit Peyton Manning took for missing a season.  Remember, he was the Iron Man (208 consecutive starts) at the position before he got hurt.  Until we see all of the attributes, we can only speculate on which ones got decreased.  Since the Injury (INJ) attribute has no impact on the OVR formula, my guess it Donny Moore decreased both the Throwing Power (THP) and Deep Accuracy (DAC) of Manning.  There was a lot of talk about Manning's arm strength after the surgery and I believe Donny Moore jumped all over that.  Taking a wait and see approach may have been a better way to go, but I could be wrong.
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Observations:

1.  I thought this was a very interesting table.  Look at the original OVR for these QB's in Madden 12 prior to any updates and compare that to their original Madden 13 OVR.  Stafford and Eli got some serious love over the last year, while Rivers, Peyton, and Vick took the most significant hits in the group.

2.  Based on previous seasons, there is a very good chance that 2 or 3 of these QB's will not be on this list by the end of the season.  A healthy Matt Schaub and a motivated Cam Newton are sure to make some noise.

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Thanks for following my blog, stayed tuned for more as the ratings continue to be released.

My August 5th blog on Madden 13 Quarterback SAC, MAC, DAC, CAR, and THP can be found here: http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/03/attribute-spotlight-qb-deep-accuracy.html

UPDATE - Here is my newest blog on the top 10 Madden 13 Running Backs:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/08/ea-madden-13-running-backs-my.html

Per Justin Dewiel, the full QB ratings will be revealed this Friday, followed by running backs next week.  WR's and TE's will be released in week 3 with defensive players rounding it out in week 4.  This is an exciting and frustrating time for me.  I will try to contain myself.  Have a great week:)

Here is the EA Sports link that breaks down when Madden 13 player ratings will be revealed:  http://www.easports.com/madden-nfl/news/article/ratings-reveal



4 comments:

  1. The giants win because of their D..

    Not because of Eli Manning.

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  2. Good stuff Michael!

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  3. First time on the site. You have put my thoughts into action!!! Great posts! Hopefully EA will listen to some of your advise, it would make the game so much more realistic.

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  4. I've been saying this for years just make the actual player the actual player. Use the players actual release and pump fakes that would help them in the game as well. They need to take a look at nba 2k12 rating system for example dirk won the ship and was still ranked OVR an 83 but they gave him all his moves and his correct rating for individual attributes and tendencies, which madden also needs, and it plays and feels like dirk regardless of his "low" overall rating. Why is EA such trash

    ReplyDelete