Saturday, February 18, 2012

Attribute Spotlight - TE Carry (CAR)

    Today I decided to expand on the WR carry (CAR) attribute blog, by looking at the TE position.  I will use the same formula to calculate the fumble percentage of TE's, to see who protects the football the best and who is the worst.  I made this list much larger and took most of the starting TE's in the NFL and a few backups who get solid playing time.

    After looking at all of the data, I developed my own suggested CAR ratings for these TE's.  Please note, that out of the 23 attributes that effect a TE's overall (OVR) in Madden 12, the CAR attribute only impacts the OVR approximately 2%.  (How much due attributes effect OVR can be found here:

    Since the CAR attribute has very little impact on a TE's OVR, it's possible the accuracy and consistency of this attribute is not a high priority.  I believe the CAR attribute is very important due to it's impact on Gameplay.  Although TE's do not fumble much in Madden, it's still part of the real NFL and should be represented as such in the video game.  There should be a clear difference between the best and the worst.

    I hope you enjoy this blog.  In the future, I plan on doing this same type of blog on running backs.


CAR = Current carry (CAR) rating in Madden 12 as of the final Roster Update for the season. 

MY CAR = This is my suggested carry (CAR) rating.

FUM% = The fumble percentage (fumbles/touches) of the player. This is calculated three ways, using career totals, 3-year totals, and the current season. This is based on Regular Season Stats.

CRFUM = Total career regular season fumbles

CRTCHs = Total career touches, which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

FUM% = The fumble percentage (fumbles/touches) of the player. This is calculated three ways, using career, 3-year totals, and current season.

11'FUM = The current number of fumbles for the 2011 NFL regular season. 

11'TCHs = The total number of touches for 2011, which includes which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

3yrFUM = The total number of regulars season fumbles from 2009 to 2011. 

3yrTCHs = The total number of regular season touches from 2009 to 2011, which includes: receptions, rushing attempts, punt returns, and kickoff returns.

Red Fill Color = (BAD) worse than the average TE in FUM%.

Blue Fill Color = (GOOD) better than the average TE in FUM%

(*) = indicates the player has been in the league two years or less.

*** Update:  For the 2011 NFL Season, 110 Tight Ends (TE) caught 2341 passes for 27,080 yards, 198 TD's, 23 Fumbles.  So the average NFL fumble percentage for 2011 is 0.98% (based only on receiving touches).  

-- All of these statistics were gathered from  The number of touches includes any rushing attempt or kick/punt returns as well as receptions.  To see all fumbles and touches for a player, you need to view the career statistics page for each player.


- The current range for the CAR attribute at the TE position in Madden 12 is 52 to 80.  For comparison, the range for the WR position is 46 to 85, FB is 60 to 88, RB 57 to 99, for a total range 46 to 99 excluding QB's.  

- Like the WR's, these percentages are low in general and it just shows how well NFL TE's protect the football.  Even with the small percentages it is easy identify which players are better at protecting the ball.  

- Be sure to look at all three columns.  Some player have more touches than other due to years in the league and how much they factor into their teams offense.  

- You can see that in general the TE's that are good are protecting the ball have be pretty consistent, in turn the TE's who are not as good at protecting have been pretty consistent as well.  That said, there are a few player trending in the opposite direction.  Daniels and Watson have really improved over the last years, while   Keller has gotten worse.

- Vernon Davis is vastly overrated in the CAR attribute based on the current range for TE's.  This goes back to perception not being the best way to rate a player.  While Davis is a dynamic TE, he does have flaws and those should be reflected in Madden when compared to other TE's.

- The other Davis on this list, Fred is vastly underrated.  He has the lowest CAR attribute in Madden 12 for a TE that is currently on an NFL roster, and he is only 3 points from the being the lowest among all the TE's.  Basically, if you switched the CAR attribute for Vernon and Fred it would result in a more accurate representation of their fumble history.  

- Currently the highest CAR for a TE in Madden 12 belongs to Nate Bynum of the 49ers with an 80.  He is a second year player who missed the 2011 season and was on the IR.  He only has 5 career receptions with zero fumbles, so I excluded him from this study.  I did look into his college history to see why he may have been rated so high.  In college he caught 47 passes and returned 1 kick for a total of 48 college touches with 1 fumble.  His college fumble percentage would have been 2.08% which should not have resulted in a 80 CAR based on the current range for TE's.

- Currently the lowest CAR for a TE in Madden 12 belongs to  Schuylar Oordt at 52.  He was an undrafted FA out of Northern Iowa who is not currently on an NFL Roster.  I could not find any college stats for Oordt that included fumbles.  He was also left out of these spreadsheets.    

Below is my spreadsheet with CAR recommendation for the selected TE's:

****See an updated spreadsheet at the bottom of the page with different suggested CAR attributes based on my new formula of removing one point for every 0.1% in fumble percentage.  I will start at 100 and go from there.  (UPDATED 2/21/12)

*** Update:  For the 2011 NFL Season, 110 Tight Ends (TE) caught 2341 passes for 27,080 yards, 198 TD's, 23 Fumbles.  So the average NFL fumble percentage for TE's in 2011was 0.98% (based only on receiving touches).  


- To determine my the CAR attributes, I first looked at the career numbers, then the three year numbers, and finished by looking at the 2011.  I would give more weight to the the career and three year numbers than just the 2011 number.  I also looked for trends, such as wither or not the player was improving and declining in their CAR ability.  If the career numbers were close between two players I would use the 3 years numbers as a tie breaker.  If both the career and three years numbers were close I would then use the 2011 as a tie breaker.  When I say tie breaker, I mean when comparing to very similar players with a similar number of touches.  I also looked at the number at career touches and factored that into my final ratings.  The procedures I used for rating the CAR attribute could also be applied to many other attributes and statistics, such as:  CAT, TAK, SAC, MAC, DAC, and KAC.  The key is to use all available statistics and analysis.  CAT would not be based on just the number of catches, but also the drop percentage.  TAK would not be based on just the number of tackles, but also the missed tackles.  You can see were I am going with this.  People might disagree with some of the ratings, but having clear defined procedures gives the rating more credibility.      

- My range for the TE carry (CAR) attribute was from 55 to 85.  I selected this range after looking the other offensive positions and their CAR range.  It could be argued that the range should go up to 99 and that 55 is to low, but based on the WR and FB positions this seemed far.  RB is a totally different issue because of the impact CAR has on their OVR (Approx 13% for RB and just 2% for TE).  Currently, the CAR is used to manipulate the OVR rating of a RB and not really based on a fumble percentage.  Again, I will do a RB blog in the coming weeks.  

-  It's strange how close my average and the current Madden 12 average is for these TE's, even though I changed some attributes significantly.  Since my range covers 30 points, I considered 70 to be the average for the CAR attribute when looking at the TE position and as it turned out, it actually was the mathematical average when I finished.

- I gave Tony Gonzalez the top CAR rating at 85. He is the only one at 85.  He has a very low career fumble percentage and no one compares to his number of touches.  He also he hasn't fumbled the ball since 2006 and has only one fumble since the beginning of the 2000 season.  For someone like Gonzalez you could easily expand the range and give him a 98 or 97 CAR rating based on his last 11 years.  I would not argue with anyone who wanted to give him a higher CAR rating, I was just working within my assigned range and he is clearly the best.

- Antonio Gates was close to Gonzalez for his career fumble percentage, but his 3 year percentage was higher than Gonzo.  Gates received a very good CAR rating of 82.

- Brent Celek received the 2nd highest CAR at 83, because he has yet to fumble in his career (5 years).  You could argue that he should be up there with Gonzalez, but the number of career touches made the difference.  Again, if you expand the range, Celek would easily be in the 90's for CAR rating.  

- 49er fans will disagree with my CAR rating for Vernon Davis, but I stand by it.  His career fumble percentage is almost twice as high as the career average for these TE's.  This year his fumble percentage was almost four times as much as the 2011 average.  While his 3 year average showed improvement, his career  numbers and his poor 2011 fumble percentage can not be ignored.    

- While Gresham has only played two seasons, I still gave him the lowest CAR attribute.  His first two seasons have been below average and he is current working on the worst career fumble percentage (I acknowledge on few opportunities than others).  He did show some improvement this year, but he needs to build on that and get into the blue before I would consider raising it.  

- Due to his low number of opportunities, I gave Chandler a 58 instead of a 55.  Chandler has less than half the opportunities of Gresham.  With more opportunities he could easily earn a better rating.

- Since Pitta, Ballard, and Dickson do not have very many touches at this point in their careers, I decided not to give them ratings of 80+.  They still received a very good ratings and can improve on that in the upcoming seasons.

- Ben Watson has been great the last three years with no fumbles.  Because the trend is show great improvement, he received a good CAR rating of 74.  In this case, a player can over come his past by performing much better in that last 3 years.  I treated Owen Daniels in a similar way.  He has been much better the last three seasons and therefore was rewarded for that with a 70, right at the average.

- Like Waston, Keller's career numbers are not the only thing I looked at.  Keller has been getting worse over the last 3 years, for that reason he received a 69 CAR rating which is just below average.

- Some of the TE's we not rated that bad when compared to the actually numbers.  I think this was mainly coincidence, since other CAR attributes were clearly inaccurate.  In the future, 70 could be the default CAR rating for TE's within this attribute range.  Rookies and other players with very little NFL experience could receive a 70 until they prove otherwise.  This can be adjusted during the season if a player has a serious fumbling issue, but otherwise it shouldn't fluctuate much during the NFL season and it should be reviewed prior to the next Madden edition.  

- We saw several players lose substantial points to their CAR ratings this year because of one bad game.  Even though the number of fumbles for the average NFL player during a season is relatively low, I am not totally against decreasing a CAR rating during the season.  I would ask that when the CAR rating is adjusted that not only this year, but the last three years and the career totals be considered.  By looking at the entire picture when rating the CAR attribute, I believe the result will be more accuracy and consistency.

Thanks again for following my blog.  The RB carry blog will take much more time due to the sheer volume of RB's and the statistics.  Have a great rest of your weekend. 

(2/21/12) - Updated TE CAR spreadsheet using my new formula of subtracting 1 carry (CAR) point for every 0.1% in fumble percentage.  See RB CAR blog for more informaton,

 Please note:  A red star (*) next to the suggested CAR rating indicates that the player has less than a 150 total NFL touches and therefore I will not give them a 100 CAR rating until that minimum is reached with  zero fumbles.

 **PLEASE READ ** I don't normally like 100 rating for any attribute, but it's hard to reduce a players rating who has never fumbled the football.  In 2011 all TE's in the NFL fumbled only 0.98% per touch.  That is excellent, based on this rating procedure the average TE would have a 90 CAR.  To avoid having a bunch of 100 rated players who have never fumbled the ball, but have a very low number of touches, you could set a minimum number of NFL touches that a player needs to achieve before a 100 CAR will be given.

   I would probably set a minimum of 150 touches for the TE position, 200 touches for the WR position, and 300 touches for the RB position, before a player could earn the 100 CAR.  Until the player reaches the minimum number of touches at each position the highest CAR they could achieve is a 95.  Remember the rookie CAR attribute and college statistics would also be considered for the first 3 season or until the player has reaches the position minimum.  By doing this, Pitta, Ballard, and Tamme would all have to wait until the minimum of 150 was reached.  Until the minimum number of touches is reached, I decided that a 95 CAR (up for debate) is the max a player can receive.

    In general it would be very rare for a player to have a 0.0 fumble percentage after reaching the position minimum.  You can see in this blog that only Celek has met the minimum number of touches and still has as  0.0 fumble percentage.

1 comment:

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