Is Robert Griffin III really the best rookie QB in the NFL? Playing Devil's Advocate.

First, I am not crazy.  I wanted to offer a different perspective on Robert Griffin III (aka RGIII).  Currently, fans and experts a like are in love with RGIII.  In their eyes, he can can do no wrong.

Would anyone really challenge the majority opinion and question wither or not RGIII is clearly the best rookie QB in the NFL this season?  Are there any cracks in his armor?  I believe there are cracks and I expect him to come back to earth in the 2nd half of the season.

BEWARE - There is going to be a ton of statistics in this blog, but I challenge you to stay with me because  I saved the best for last.  I will be looking beyond the general NFL statistics that most fans and TV personalities look at.  I have gathered every possible statistic I could think of.  In the end maybe you will see a different RGIII, maybe not.  I will be comparing RGIII against his rookie counterparts:  Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden.

I will also analyze the EA Sports Madden 13 attributes for these five QB's and give my suggestions for some changes.

I gathered all of my statistics from the following websites:  www.nfl.com, www.profootballfocus.com (aka: PFF), www.espn.com, and www.sports.yahoo.com.

Here is the first group of statistics:

BLUE = The best rookie QB in that statistic

RED = The worst rookie QB in that statistic

* ESPN QBR explanation (Click Here).

* Here is PFF's explaination of their QB rating, "Offering an alternative to the out-dated standard, we take into account dropped passes, throw aways, spikes, and yards in the air and further adjust the old formula so it makes more sense and is a more accurate measure."

Observations:

    At first glance, you will notice that RGIII dominates in many of the more common QB statistics, like:  Comp%, Yards per attempt (YPA), Int% and NFL QB rating.  Even PFF has him rated as the top rookie QB.  

What is ESPN thinking by rating Andrew Luck higher than RGIII?  Let me give some explanation.  ESPN does what they call "divide credit" among players for the success of the QB.  

Here is an excerpt from their ESPN QBR webpage,  

"On a pass play, for instance, there are a few basic components:

• The pass protection
• The throw
• The catch
• The run after the catch"

Pay special attention to that last one, "The run after the catch."  If you look back up at the previous table, you will see that RGIII leads the rookie QB's in "Yards after Catch" (YAC) per attempt.  What does that mean?  It means Robert Griffin III is getting a lot of help from his teammates after the catch.  By comparison, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson aren't getting much help at all based on their YAC per attempt.  I was surprised to see how high the YAC was for Brandon Weeden, but it explains why he can still put up some respectable numbers, despite being the lowest rated QB by all three sources.
Many "experts" on TV and Radio claim RGIII doesn't have much to work with on offense, I bet Wilson and Luck would like to have such shrubs playing on their team.  So next time someone wants to give RGIII all the credit, tell them to take a look at his YAC per attempt.

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Here is a table I put together using accuracy statistics from www.profootballfocus.com

Observations:

1.  Once again, RGIII shines when you look at the standard completion percentages.  What I find fascinating, is percentage attempted by target distance.  19% of Robert Griffin's targets are behind the line of scrimmage, non of these rookies are even close to that figure.  A number that high tells me that RGIII is relying heavily on screen plays.  Andrew Luck is the exact opposite.   

Oh by that way.  Everyone talks about RGIII's great deep accuracy.  Really?  His 6.9% of targets 20 or more yards downfield is tied for 32nd in the NFL with Christian Ponder.  In total, RGIII has attempted 13 passes that were targeted 20 or more yards downfield and of those 13, five were caught and one was dropped.  Is that really enough for everyone to praise the deep passing of RGIII?  I don't think so.  Why doesn't anyone talk about the deep passing of Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill? Think about it.

2.  FACT - Per PFF statistics, no starting QB (who has played in all games) has attempted or completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than RGIII.  

Next time you hear Trent Dilfer of ESPN talk about RGIII's great deep ball, feel free to think, "what deep ball?"

So RGIII might have a great deep ball and he may be very accurate downfield, but I need to see a whole lot more before I'm convinced.  By looking at these numbers, defensive coordinators should be more concerned with his screen pass than the deep ball.

3.  FYI - According to PFF statistics, from 2008 through 2011, NFL QB's completed 39.9% of their passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield.  All of these rookies, with the exception of Brandon Weeden exceed that figure.   This season, NFL QB's are completing 42.7% of their deep targets (again, Weeden is the only one not exceeding that percentage).

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Next, we look at some rushing statistics.

* Pressure % = Is a PFF statistic, which is the percentage of dropbacks under pressure per total dropbacks.



Observations:

1.  RGIII clearly dominates this category, right?  In most respects, yes he does.

That said.  RGIII has fumbled the ball more than any other rookie QB, but he has the 2nd best fumble rate.  Five of his fumbles having been while rushing, the other two were sack fumbles.  Lucky for the Redskins, RGIII has only lost two of those seven fumbles.  

Why haven't we heard about RGIII's fumbles?  Is it because he's only lost two of them or it's that fact that everyone is so infatuated with him that they can't objectively critique him?  I'll go with the later. 

2.  So far this season, no QB is running with the ball at a higher percentage then RGIII (14%).  For comparison, Cam Newton is currently at 12.8% and Mike Vick is at 8.9%.  Redskin fans are on "cloud 9" right now, but I don't think RGIII will last long in the NFL if he keeps running with the ball at such a high percentage.  RGIII is not Cam Newton.  Newton is 3 inches taller and weighes 21 pounds more than RGIII; he can take more of a beating.  RGIII is closer to Mike Vick physically and I could see him having similar injury problems if he continues to run so much.  

3.  Russell Wilson is consistently playing under duress behind Seattle's questionable offensive line.  The 42.4% pressure is tied for the 2nd highest in the NFL (with Kevin Kolb).  Only Mike Vick has faced more pressure (45.4%) than Russell Wilson.

Speaking of pressure, or lack thereof.  Brandon Weeden is playing under the least amount of pressure among these rookies, yet he's still the worst rated rookie QB.  

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Next, is my favorite and perhaps the most telling table of them all.  The following are the combined defensive statistics of the teams these five rookies have faced through week 7:

RED = The top defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, RED indicates the toughest matchup)

BLUE = The worst defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, BLUE indicates the easiest matchup).

Observations:

1.  While RGIII has the highest opponent winning percentage, only three of the seven teams he's faced had a winning record.  Of those three teams, the Redskins only won one game (vs. MIN).  Luck has also played three teams with a winning record and beat two of them (MIN and GB).  Wilson has faced four teams with a winning record and beat two of them (GB and NE).  Tannehill has only faced two teams with a winning record and lost both.  Weeden has played two teams with a winning record and lost both, plus he has  played two .500 teams without posting a win.

2.  With regards to pass defense, RGIII has had the easiest road (among rookie QB's).  Could this explain his high QB rating and completion percentage?  Based on these defensive statistics, he has a 3 to 4% completion percentage advantage on the other rookie QB's.  

WARNING - RGIII has five very tough divisional matchups remaining on his schedule, as well as a game at Pittsburgh and versus Baltimore.  You've been warned!

3.  Andrew Luck is playing against the toughest pass defense in terms of:  comp%, TD%, Int%, and QB rating.  Besides two remaining games against Houston, Luck has a much easier schedule coming up.  I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a major statistical step forward in the 2nd half of the season.

4.  In terms of yards allowed and points per game, Russell Wilson has been matched up against the stingiest defenses.  Could this explain some of the conservative play calling by the Seattle offensive coordinator?  Possibly.  The Seattle schedule does not get much easier moving forward (with the exception of the Lions and Bills).  Seattle has three more divisional games, as well as road games against Chicago and an underrated Miami defense.  The NFC West is arguably the best defensive division in the NFL, for that reason expectations should not be high for Wilson over the second half of the season.  

5.  How bad will Brandon Weeden be once he faces some stiffer competition.  While he leads the rookies in passing yards and TD passes, these defensive stats clearly explain why.  How many TD's would Andrew Luck or even Russell Wilson have if they went up against the same defense as Weeden?  One thing is clear, the difference between Weeden and RGIII should have been a couple rounds not 20 picks in the 1st round.

Think about it.  Weeden has a great YAC per attempt (meaning his pass catchers are making plays for him), faced the least amount of pressure (among rookie QB's) and went up against the worst defenses in terms of yards allowed and points allowed.....yet he keeps ending up at the bottom when compared to his rookie counterparts.  

6.  Then we have Tannehill.  He seems to be left out of the rookie QB conversation in many cases.  Would you have guesses that he is the 2nd most accurate rookie behind RGIII?  Not to mention, he has the highest completion percentage on deep passes and passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield.  It's all the more impressive, when you consider that the defenses he's faced have only allowed completions on 60.5% of pass attempts (toughest matchup among rookie QB's).  Going forward, Tannehill has a very friendly schedule (with the exception of the Seattle and S.F. matchups).  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as the 3rd best rookie QB (statistically speaking). 

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My finals thoughts on RGIII

Is Robert Griffin III really the best rookie QB in the NFL this season?  Through seven games, I will have to say "yes."  That said, I strongly believe that Andrew Luck will be the top rookie QB by the end of the year.  Also, in my opinion there is no guarantee that RGIII will stay healthy all season.

Remember the Cam Newton of 2011?  By the end of the season, he had proven the doubters wrong...or so we thought.  Cam and the Panthers came into this season with high expectations and playoff aspirations, now look at them.  Carolina is 1-5 and everyone around the NFL is questioning Cam's ability to control his emotions and wither or not he can deal with losing.  Not to mention, defenses have made adjustments when facing Cam, and so far Carolina has failed to make an adjustment on their end.

I brought up Cam Newton, because I believe RGIII could have a similar fate.

So do you still think Robert Griffin III is the best rookie QB?  Where would you rank him among all NFL QB's?  Please leave a comment below.

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BONUS MATERIAL 

Taking a look at the five rookie QB's and their Madden 13 player ratings and attributes.

Observations:

1.  Why has RGIII not received a decrease to his carry attribute after 7 fumbles and a 8.9% fumble rate?  Russell Wilson has received a -1 to his CAR, but has fewer fumbles and a better fumble rate of just 4.1%.  It's time for RGIII to receive a decrease to this attribute.

2.  Statistically, Russell Wilson is the 3rd best rookie in regards to DAC, yet he is dead last among this group with a 74 DAC.

Weeden has no business having an 80 DAC at this point.

Speaking of DAC, why hasn't Tannehill seen a more significant increase since he has been better than all of these rookies (included RGIII). Granted, Tannehill has only attempted 19 deep passess (11 completions), but if RGIII is able to sustain an 88 DAC on only 13 attempts, then Tannehill has a case for a DAC increase.

3.  Does 13 deep attempts and just 5 completions (+ 1 drop) justify an 88 DAC?  Remember, RGIII has attempted and completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than any other starting QB this season (who have played in all games).

4.  No rookie was worse than Andrew Luck in accuracy of passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield (61.5%).  Isn't it time to give him a more significant decrease in SAC?

5.  In most cases AWR (awareness) is used by EA to increase the OVR rating.  Even if that is the case, what has Weeden really done to deserve an increase in awareness?  He is aware of the best defenders to throw an interception to and he had the highest fumble rate among these rookies at 15%.  Remember, he faced the least amount of pressure when compared to his fellow rookies.  BTW - In no way should Weeden have a higher SAC than RGIII (refer back to the accuracy table).

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Thank you for following my blog.  Enjoy the games on Sunday.

    



  

Madden 13 Roster update #9 (WEEK 8) - Defense sees balance, the offense continues to get a pass.

Ok, life is finally starting to slow down and I plan on producing two blogs today (this being the first).  The week 8 Madden 13 roster update gave us some balance on defense, but continued the trend of inflated offense.  

On Friday (10/26/12), the Week 8 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).  

The is the 7th blog post in this series.  The goal is to show fans and EA the trends by position when it comes to weekly increases and decreases.  I do not support weekly attribute adjustments; I believe a larger sample size is required for more accuracy and consistency.  That said.  EA refuses to change their ways, which results in both inaccuracy and inconsistency in Madden player ratings.

In case you missed it, here my blog post from last week:  Update #8 (Week 7)

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For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update.  I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.  

* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website.  This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.

Observations:

1.  The biggest news this week was that the defense had complete balance in regards to increases and decreases (50/50).  This was primarily due to the DL receiving seven more decreases than increases.  This is the 3rd week in a row the DLine has seen more decreases than increases, no other position on defense has done that this season.  As a matter of fact, on defense (other than the DLine) only the Safety position has had more decreases than increases anytime season (week 5 and 7).  

On the season, the Dline has received the highest percentage of decreases at 46% (of all positions).  Their counterparts on the OLine have only received 41% decreases this season and had a whooping 41 players increased this week.  Those 41 increases were a high for any position this year and that was coming off an NFL week where six teams had a bye.

2.  On the offensive side of the ball, you will see the highest percentage of increase (64%), since the week 3 update (77%).  Of the 64%, much of that was due to the OL receiving 23 more increases than decreases and the WR's seeing 11 more increases than decreases.  That is a +34 in only two positions. 

For the third week in a row, QB's received more decreases than increases (7 decreases/5 increases).  Get this, prior to this update, no other position on offense had received more decreases than increases in a given week.  After weeks of pointing out the how lopsided the TE position was, EA responded this week by giving them only 6 increases to 8 decreases.  This is long overdue.  Maybe it's just coincidence, they couldn't actually be reading my blog, could they?  Now, we need to get them to bring the WR position back down to earth.  

3.  For the second week in a row the WR position received it's largest number of increases with 24.  Maybe EA is afraid to give these divas what they deserve.  On the season, WR's have received 68% increases and only once have they received 40% or more in decreases in a given week (40% exactly in the week 6 update).  Last week, I pointed out that www.profootballfocus.com gives EA plenty of options to decrease at WR in a given week.  During week 7 alone, 41 WR's received a negative grade according to PFF.  Unfortunately, Donny Moore continues to disregard his most trusted source, especially when it comes to WR's.  

Did you know that 6 WR's that got increased this week actually received a negative overall grade from PFF for their week 7 performance.  Those WR's are:  Cecil Shorts (-5.7), Denarius Moore (-1.4), Josh Gordon (-1.3), Darrius H-Bey (-0.8), Miles Austin (-0.6), and Santana Moss (-0.5).  

BTW - Cecil Shorts received the worst grade of any NFL WR for his week 7 performance.

What do all of these WR's have in common besides a negative grade from PFF?  Well, all of them except Darrius H-Bey scored a TD in week 7 (Moss scored two).  With the exception of Miles Austin, they all received a negative receiving grade as well as a negative overall grade from PFF for week 7.  

*Austin received a -1.1 in blocking which brought down his overall grade.

EA Sports might say that these increases were not just based on the week 7 alone.  I completely disagree.  

Check this out:  

Austin and H-Bey, both received a decrease in the week 7 update, only to receive an increase in the week 8 update.  

Denarius Moore and Josh Gordon have received increases in both the week 7 and 8 roster updates.  

So it's clear that EA and Mr. Moore base many of these rating adjustments on the previous week's performance.  Of course, they utilize a "highlight based" rating system.  Does a TD really define a player true abilities and should all other aspects of their play be ignored if they score a TD?  I don't think so.

4.  Wait a minute.  Is there evidence that Donny Moore does look at ProFootballFocus?  Hmmmm.  The answer is:  Yes and No.

In this week's roster update blog, Donny noted that Free Safety Rahim Moore (DEN) received an increase to his tackle attribute from 60 to 72.  He also noted that safety Thomas DeCoud (ATL) received a decrease to his tackle attribute from 75 to 66.  

Why did EA do that?  Well, I checked out PFF and their Tackle Efficiency Statistics for safeties (signature stat section).  What I found was that Rahim Moore is ranked #1 for safeties so far this season (he hasn't missed a single tackle this year).  I also noticed that DeCoud is dead last with a tackle efficiency rating of 3.7.  That 3.7 means DeCoud misses a tackle every 3.7 attempts.  That is a horrible number to say the least.  Moore has 40 total tackles to zero missed tackles.  That a big difference.

So what is my problem with this.  On the surface, nothing.  Moore has earned his increase this season and at the same time DeCoud has earned his decrease.  But, let's look a little deeper.

The safety with the 2nd best tackle efficiency is none other then Moore's teammate, SS Mike Adams with a 25.0.  Currently, Adams has a 69 tackle attribute in Madden 13, just 3 points better than DeCoud.  

The safety with the 2nd worst tackle efficiency is 49er SS Donte Whitner with a 4.4.  Whitner currently has a 87 tackle attribute in Madden 13.  That is not a typo.  This is the inconsistency we get time after time from EA when it comes to Madden player ratings and attributes.  They do not objectively apply attribute ratings to each player on each team.  Why in the hell is Whitner getting a pass, when DeCoud gets hammered?  Either Donny doesn't want to face the wrath of 49er fans on twitter or he simply has no objective procedures for making attribute adjustments.  I actually think it's both.  

Now, some might say, "What about last year?"  Here you go.

Tackle efficiency for 2011: 

Mike Adams, 10.5
Whitner, 10.5
DeCoud, 9.5
Moore, 3.9

So, Moore was the worst last year and has since improved drastically.  He deserves the increase.  Adams has improved as well, but has only seen his TAK increase 2 points since the Release Day roster update. Very little separates DeCoud and Whitner in 2011 or 2012, yet Whitner has only seen a 2 point decrease all season from 89 to 87 TAK.

I would like to thank EA and Donny for adding these two specific attribute changes to their week 8 ratings blog.  While they thought it would show accuracy, consistency, and attention to detail, it actual shows the complete opposite.

Is this really the type of Madden player ratings that fans and players deserve?  Why can't EA be objective?  

Does a Falcons fans have a reason to be upset with DeCoud's decrease?  Yes and no.  Yes, because EA and Donny only targeted their player and essentially ignored the 49er player.  That said.  DeCoud deserves the decrease so they can't complain about that part.

I urge all of you to start looking deeper at all available statistics.  There are several players who have very inaccurate TAK attributes, not just the few pointed out here.  I suggested that tackle efficiency be used for the TAK attribute prior to the release of Madden 13 (Click here), but it fell on deaf ears.  

5.  Here are some final numbers from the Week 8 roster update (#9):


38 players received an increase this week and last week.
18 players received a decrease this week and last week.
20 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
14 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.

*From the week 2 update to present, 86 players have received an increase just one week after receiving a decrease.  75 players have received a decrease just one week after receiving an increase.

In total, that is 161 players who have had their ratings adjusted in the opposite direction after just one week.  

As far as I'm concerned, that is 161 reasons why EA and Donny Moore should start looking at larger sample sizes (3 to 4 week blocks).  

Maybe Donny Moore should go after a career in politics, flip flopping 161 times should qualify him for a job.

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Thanks for following my blog and stay tuned for one more blog post today, it should should spark a lot of discussion.

Madden 13 Roster update #8 (WEEK 7) - The good and the bad. The numbers don't lie.

As work continues to take up most of my time, I am running behind on my blog.  In the next couple of weeks, I will be moving to a new schedule at work which should free up some extra time for my blog.  

The week 7 update (#8) had some very similar results to the week 6 update. 

On Friday (10/19/12), the Week 7 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).  

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For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update.  I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.  

* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website.  This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.

Observations:

1.  First, look at the total percentages on offense from week 6 and week 7, they are exactly the same (59% increase to 41% decrease).  That is not a typo.  While it's better than the early weeks of the season, it's still going to result in having too many overrated offensive players by the end of the season.  

2.  For the 2nd week in a row there are have been more decreases for QB's than increases.  Is this a step in the right direction?  Time will tell.

3.  Running backs were exactly the same in week 6 and week 7 (50/50).  This is the 3rd time Donny has adjusted 22 running backs in a given week (week 2, 6, and 7).  He has never adjusted fewer than 22 running backs and never more than 24.  Is this some kind of target he is trying to hit every week?  Do you believe that 22 to 24 running backs need to be adjusted each week?  I don't.  REMEMBER - I believe the first question a player ratings person should ask prior to any adjustment is, "What attributes has this player consistently been exceeding or not living up to?"

As of this week, running backs now have the most balance on offense from week 2 to week 7 at 57% increases to 43% decreases.  

4.  For the second week in a row, Donny was able to find some TE's who deserved decreases.  The position as a whole is still very lopsided.

5.  I don't know what it is about the Wide Receiver position, but EA just refuses to find any balance here.  Does it makes sense that such a high percentage of WR's are seeing increases (69%), while at the same time a high percentage of CB's are seeing increases (62%)?  Couldn't someone argue that the success of a WR is at the expense of a CB and vice versa?

Trying to answer my own question, I went to www.profootballfocus.com to crunch some numbers.

*These numbers are based on players who have seen at least 25% of their teams offensive or defensive snaps through week 6:

- 56% of wide receivers has a positive overall grade from PFF (108 total players)

- 44% of cornerbacks have a positive overall grade from PFF (100 total players)

That is not a typo folks, you can go look at PFF's signature stats by position and see for yourself.

Here are some more numbers:

30 WR's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 34 WR's received negative grades based on week 5 only.  So if EA insists on making weekly player rating adjustments, there are plenty of WR's to decrease (note - that doesn't include other players who see a lower percentage of snaps).

40 CB's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 39 received negative grades based on week 5 only.  Again, there are plenty of players to decrease.  

6.  In regards to total increases and decreases, the defense is very close to being balanced in this week's update.  Does this show that EA is finally listening?  No, because you can't disregard the offensive players.

7.  Here are some final numbers from the Week 7 roster update:

36 players received an increase this week and last week.
13 players received a decrease this week and last week.
16 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
16 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.

Over the last five updates, 66 players have received an increase after being decreased the previous week.  61 players have received a decrease after being increased the previous week.  That is a total of 127 players. You know what that tell me?  It tells me, that EA and Donny Moore do not have a consistent and accurate way of rating NFL players.  It tells me, that they need to look at larger sample sizes (3 to 4 games) to avoid wasting time.

If EA would go to a 3 to 4 week evaluation period, they would have more time to correct the inaccuracy and inconsistency in other attributes, such:  SAC, MAC, DAC, KAC, TAK, CAT, BSH, ect, ect.  I could go on.  I challenge you to look at each individual attribute in Madden 13 and sort them by best to worst at each position.  You will be shocked at what you see.  Then, go look at the best available statistics and game tape. I think you will see that there is a lot of work to do within each attribute rating.

When it comes to rating accuracy and consistency, no one at EA Sports holds Donny Moore accountable.  Think about it?  When you are at work, doesn't someone hold you accountable?  You bet they do.  In the case of Madden player ratings, the only people left to hold Mr. Moore accountable would be the fans and players.  Unfortunately, most fans are only concerned with their favorite team and can not be objective.  Players are too concerned with OVR and SPD.

Wouldn't it just be easier if a real ratings team was used by EA Sports.  I think it would be.  Player rating inaccuracy and inconsistency effects all Madden players.  Though some Madden players will claim ratings don't matter, the majority of us know that they do.  If player ratings didn't matter, then why was Green Bay the most used team in Madden 12?  Why do the top Madden players gravitate to the highest rated teams?  The fact is, ratings and attributes matter.  Yes, some attributes matter more than others, but EA's goal should always be to produce the most accurate and consistent ratings possible.

Get this, EA and Donny Moore can't even provide fans with the procedures they use when rating each attribute.  I've asked several times and have received no answer.  Without objective procedures, fans can not expect accuracy and consistency within Madden player ratings.

Final Thoughts:

Recently, an EA Game Changer told me that he liked my blog, but not the fact that I make people look incompetent at their job.  Simply put, "If the shoe fits, wear it."
I'm not out to hurt anyone's feelings, but are people really this thin-skinned?  EA is the only NFL video game, and last I checked Donny Moore is the so called "ratings czar".  Both EA and Donny are solely responsible for the Madden player ratings.  If I should be directing my criticism and suggestions to someone else, please let me know.  If EA wants to be the only NFL game in town, they need to be open to constructive criticism.

My goal is and always will be to challenge EA to produce the most accurate player attributes possible.

Madden 13 Roster update #7 (WEEK 6) - Is this progress or just mixed signals?

First, I would like to apologize again for neglecting my blog.  Work has been really eating up my time the last two weeks, leaving me only limited time with family and to sleep.  Things should get back to normal by next week.  I have a lot of great ideas for future blogs, but need to find the time to get them done.  Hang in there with me, I will do my best not to disappoint.


On Friday (10/12/12), the Week 6 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).  

For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update.  I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.    

* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website.  This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.

Observations:

1.  This week's changes had mixed results.  For the first time all season, QB's received more decreases than increases.  For the 2nd week in row, HB's have been very balanced (50/50 this week).  Even the K's were balanced this week.  On defense, the DL and S's showed very good balance for the second week in a row, while LB and CB failed to show any balance this week and in the total numbers.

   Unfortunately, TE, WR, FB, LB, and CB continue with the same old trend of increases far outweighing decreases.  Take a look at the total numbers (with yellow heading) and you will see how unbalanced these positions have been in regards to OVR adjustments.

Speaking of TE, one of the worst this season has yet to receive a single attribute decrease.  That player is Ben Watson (CLV).  According to www.profootballfocus.com, Watson has earned a -5.4 OVR grade, which is good for 48th out of 50 TE who have seen 25% of their teams offensive snaps.  He has a negative grade in receiving, pass blocking, run blocking, and penalties.  PFF has a very good statistic called, "Yards per route run", Watson has a 0.97 YPRR which puts him at 37th.  He is simply not getting open.  So while TE's are receiving very few decreases in Madden13, this is an example of a player who deserves one.  Why does EA continue to ignore their "most trusted" source in PFF?

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Did you know, that TE Kyle Rudolph (MIN) has received a negative overall grade (-1.6) from PFF this season, yet he has received two weekly increases to zero decreases?  EA is looking at his 4 TD's and ignoring his horrible passing blocking, run blocking, and below average drop rate.  According to PFF, Rudolph is 37th among TE's is pass blocking efficiency (PBE), is 43rd in run blocking, it below the 3 year average in TE drop rate (8.74%) at 9.52%. 

My assumption is that this play had a lot to do with  Rudolph now having the highest SPC (94) among Madden13 TE's:
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/videos/Rudolphs-One-Handed-TD-Catch-vs-49ers/baf4ef12-71df-48c6-b8f4-7e8237af6f5d

Should one catch result in a 6 pt SPC boost and the top attribute rating at the TE position?  Think about and comment below.


Also, if one catch can boost SPC 6pts, than what about catch in traffic (CIT)?  Check out this highlight:
http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/videos/Ponders-15-Yard-TD-Pass-To-Rudolph-vs-Titans/f618dac6-ef1e-4d0e-b4be-a5907be1948c

Currently, no one is tracking statistics for "catch in traffic".  While I don't believe one play should make a break an attribute, it's plays like this that should be considered when rating a players catch in traffic.  The players who consistently make these kind of catches, should receive the higher CIT ratings.  Right now Rudolph has a 72 CIT, do you agree?  Why?  Please comment below.

From week 1 to week 6, Rudolph has currently received the following attribute adjustments:

+1 SPD, +3 AGI, +2 ACC, +3 AWR, +5 TRK, +1 CAR, +2 CTH, +2 RTE, +1 CIT, +6 SPC, +2 RBK, and +6 IMP.

Remember, Rudolph is worse than the 3 year average in TE drop rate and has received a horrible run block grade from PFF.  

Once again, EA is adjusting attributes that don't reflect what is happening on the NFL field.  This is why I keep telling all of you to LOOK BEYOND OVR.  If you look beyond OVR, you will see just how inaccurate Madden player ratings really are.

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Oh, I can't forget about Jason Witten. In the week 4 update, he finally received a decrease for his poor play (from 93 to 92 OVR), only to see an increase back up to 93 OVR in the week 5 update.

From week 1 to date, Witten has received the following attribute adjustments:  -1 AGI, +1 RTE, +1 CIT, -2 RBK, -1 IMP.  Witten currently has a -4.0 overall grade from PFF this season.  He has a -2.6 pass block grade, -2.8 penalty grade (4 penalties tied for 1st among TE's) , leads all TE's in drops at 6 (good for the 35th in drop rate at 22.22%).  Even after a last week's bye, Witten still leads all TE's in drops.  His 6 drops also tie him for the NFL lead among all players.  His drop rate of 22.22% would place him in a tie for 89th among WR's.

I'm the first to look at a players track record, but I also believe in adjusting attributes in 4 week blocks based on recent performance.  Witten's first four games have been horrible.  He has earned a decrease in CTH, AWR, and CIT, but hasn't received them.  Instead, he has a net gain in CIT and no change in AWR or CAT.  Yes, he is a future hall of famer, but through a quarter of this season Witten hasn't played like one.  

From 2009 through 2011, Witten had one of the best drop rates among TE's with 4.64%.  By adding this year's statistics to those numbers, his drop rate jumps up to 6.19%.  That 6.19% is still very good for a receiver or tight end, but that type of change in such a large sample size also justifies a decrease to his CAT attribute.  

Consider this, from 2009 to present, Tony Gonzalez has a 4.89% drop rate on 286 "catchable targets", Witten has a 6.19% drop rate over that same period of time on 307 "catchable targets", yet Gonzalez has a 92 CAT to Witten's 97.  Who do you think should be higher?  
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Here are some final numbers from the Week 6 roster update:

34 players received an increase this week and last week.
20 players received a decrease this week and last week.
14 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
12 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.

Oh and our buddy running back Chris Johnson (TEN) was adjusted again this week receiving a decrease after being increased last week.  So, Johnson was decreased in week 2, 3, and 4.  Increased in week 5, and now decreased again in week 6.  He has been adjusted every week during the regular season.  Oh, I have an idea EA, why not use bigger samples and only adjust players every 3 to 4 weeks?  

J.J. Watt is the only other player to have an OVR adjustment all five weeks of the season.  Watt has been increased 5 weeks in a row.  BTW - He has been a monster this season and deserves some attribute increases.  That said, would it have been the end of the world if his first increase came after week 3 or 4?

Donny Moore's number one priority should be attribute accuracy, but EA would rather have inconsistency and inaccuracy.  These numbers don't lie; at this rate many Madden13 players will be completely OVERRATED because EA and Donny Moore won't slow down and pay attention to detail.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, player ratings should not be about making friends, it should be about accuracy and consistency.  

Enjoy the games on Sunday and don't forget, "Look beyond OVR and into the attributes."

Madden 13 Roster update #6 (WEEK 5) - Is EA starting to give out more decreases?

First, I apologize for not being more active on my blog lately.  I have been putting in a ton of hours at work and haven't had much spare time.  Also, my wife and I shared with friends and family that we are expecting our first child in early April.  Needless to say, I have many things going on right now.  Today, I had a little time and wanted to get out a quick blog on the upcoming roster update.

On Friday (10/5/12), the Week 5 Madden 13 roster update will go live (Here is EA's Blog).  EA is still not supplying fans with a FULL roster update blog.  A complete roster update blog would include ALL attribute adjustments, not just OVR and a few CAR changes.  Of course, EA doesn't want to reveal that information, because it would show how inaccurate and inconsistent the ratings really are.  It's sad really.  The player ratings "team" knows exactly what they are changing each week and could just simply note that on the blog.  It would take very little time, but if they need help, they could send me the informations and I will put it out to all Madden fans (BTW - I doubt they would ever do that).

For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update.  I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.    

* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website.  This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.

Observations:

* Remember - I don't support weekly "kneejerk" attribute adjustments.  I would like to see players evaluated with bigger sample sizes prior to increasing/decreasing an attribute.  That said, EA is not going to change any time soon, so we need to evaluate what they are doing on a weekly basis.  Accuracy and consistency should always be their primary goal, even if they insist on a using small sample sizes.

1.  The week 5 update produced the highest percentage of decreases for both offense and defense since the game was released.  Is EA and Donny Moore finally trying to find a balance here?  Maybe.

OL and RB's see the highest percentage of decreases on offense and the secondary (CB and S) receives the highest percentage of decreases on defense.  TE's and WR's are still a joke when it comes to decreases.

These number are very interesting and allow you to track some of the player rating tendencies of EA.  I think EA tried to make an effort to decrease more players this week, but this is still a very unbalanced roster update.  


2.  In the week 5 update:

22 players received an increase this week after receiving a decrease last week.

19 players received a decrease this week after receiving an increase last week.

31 players received an increase this week and last week.

19 players received a decrease this week and last week.

91 players received some kind of OVR adjustment this week and last week.  .

I'm sorry, but this is an absolute joke and is the perfect example of the inconsistency we are subject to in Madden player ratings.  50 players went the opposite direction in week 5 after being adjusted in week 4.  You know what this tells me?  It tells me that EA is not confident in the way they evaluate players, if they were, they would stand by their adjustments for more than one week.

Since the week 2 update, 

4 players have been adjusted four weeks in a row.  They are:

Increased all 4 weeks:  J.J. Watt (DE, HOU) 

Decreased 3 weeks in a row, but increased this week:  Chris Johnson (RB, TEN)

Decreased week 2, increased week 3, decreased week 4, and increased in week 5:  Mitchell Schwartz (OL, CLV) and Mike Vick (QB, PHI)

The Schwartz and Vick situation speaks for itself.  


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Final thoughts:

Again, I apologize for not being more active on my blog the last two weeks.  Unfortunately, I am going to be very busy next week as well and working very long days.  I will do my best to get out another blog as soon as possible.  Have a great weekend.