Friday, December 21, 2012
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers
If you are in need of the Fantasy Football sleepers at each position, check out my new blog NFL Manniac. You will find Fantasy Football advice and other NFL discussion.
Friday, November 30, 2012
EA Madden NFL 13 Roster update #14 (WEEK 13) - Continuing to track increases and decreases.
I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week. This blog post will continue my series of tracking increases and decreases throughout the year. Enjoy.
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On Friday (11/30/12), the Week 13 Madden NFL 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
My goal with this blog series is to increase awareness when it comes to Madden players ratings. As of this blog post, EA has still not released information regarding the standard procedures they follow when adjusting each individual player attribute? By refusing to share an objective set of procedures that apply to all players and teams (equally), Madden fans will continue to conclude that player ratings are full of bias and inaccuracy.
You can contact EA on twitter at @EAMaddenNFL and Donny Moore (Lead Ratings Person) using @Donny_Moore to share your thoughts.
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This blog will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked.
Obseravtions:
- The gap in the overall percentage of increases in offense and defense has really shrunk the last several updates. 58.8% for the offense to 57.0% for the defense. The roster updates in week 11 and 12 gave a boost to the defense in term of increase percentage. This week, the offense and defense had almost identical percentages (55.8% increase for the offense and 55.7% for defense).
- WR and CB continue to be very close in terms of actual changes and percentages.
- To date, quarterbacks have received the highest percentage (47%) of decreases for the offense, while safeties have the highest percentage (47%) on defense.
- To date, fullbacks have the lowest decrease percentage (26%) on offense and punters have the lowest (26%) on defense.
- 47 Players received an increase in both week 12 and 13 roster update.
- 27 Players received a decrease in both week 12 and 13 update.
- 40 Players were increased this week after being decreased last week.
- 32 Players were decreased this week after being increased last week.
- In total, there were 72 "flip flop" player rating adjustments in the week 13 update.
* A "flip flop" rating adjustment is when a player is increased or decreased one week and adjusted in the exact opposite direction the following week. This is also an example of a "knee jerk" rating system. In this scenario, only 1 game has been played between rating adjustments.
- Since the week 3 roster update (the second update based on the NFL regular season), Madden NFL 13 has produced 454 "flip flop" player rating adjustments. Honestly, EA can't even stand behind these adjustments for more than one week? As a matter of fact, the new ratings are typically live on Friday and by Sunday night EA is already ready to back track on something that is only two days old. Really?
- I will continue to suggest to EA Sports, that they utilize larger sample sizes (minimum 3 to 4 games) prior to adjusting player ratings and attributes in current/future Madden NFL titles. I believe a larger sample size will result in more accuracy and less inconsistency in player attribute ratings.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Madden 13 Roster update #12 (WEEK 11) - Tracking increases and decreases.
On Friday (11/16/12), the Week 11 Madden NFL 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
My goal with this blog series is to increase awareness when it comes to Madden players ratings. As of this blog post, EA has still not released information regarding the standard procedures they follow when adjusting each individual player attribute? By refusing to share an objective set of procedures that apply to all players and teams (equally), Madden fans will continue to conclude that player ratings are full of bias and inaccuracy.
You can contact EA on twitter at @EAMaddenNFL and Donny Moore (Lead Ratings Person) using @Donny_Moore to share your thoughts.
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This blog will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked.
Observations:
- Increases spike for the defense, after seeing 3 consecutive weeks of balance.
- Offense sees the highest percentage (47%) of decreases all year, as well as the highest total number of decreases with 102.
- 47 Players received an increase in both week 10 and 11 roster update.
- 27 Players received a decrease in both week 10 and 11 update.
- 29 Players were increased this week after being decreased last week.
- 30 Players were decreased this week after being increased last week.
- In total, there were 59 "flip flop" player rating adjustments in the week 11 update.
* A "flip flop" rating adjustment is when a player is increased or decreased one week and adjusted in the exact opposite direction the following week. This is also a "knee jerk" type rating system. In this scenario, only 1 game has been played between rating adjustments.
- Since the week 3 roster update (the second update based on the NFL regular season), Madden NFL 13 has produced 316 "flip flop" player rating adjustments. Think about that. This is a direct result of trying to do weekly rating adjustments with "knee jerk" reactions.
- I will continue to suggest to EA Sports, that they utilize larger sample sizes (minimum 3 to 4 games) prior to adjusting player ratings and attributes in current/future Madden NFL titles.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Madden 13 Team by Team OVR adjustments from Week 2 update thru Week 10
Happy NFL Sunday Madden fans. Last night I got the idea of breaking down all of the player overall (OVR) increases and decreases, team by team. It only scratches the surface in regards to player ratings, especially since attributes are what really matter. That said, I believe it's an interesting way to look at the Madden Ratings debate.
This breakdown begins with the Madden 13 week 2 roster update and goes through the most current update as of 11/9/12 (week 10 update). I started with the week 2 update, because it was the first update based on regular season games. Basically, the week 2 roster update is in response to week 1 performances.
I will continue to update this breakdown until the end of the regular season. Check out your favorite team and compare them with the rest of the league.
Here is the table:
** Wins and winning percentage was based on all games through week 9 of the NFL season. The week 10 roster update for Madden 13 is only based on games played through week 9 of the NFL season.
In future blogs, I plan on breaking down this information even deeper. Stay tuned. Please comment below on any thing that jumps out at you. Cleveland jumps out at me; they only have two wins, but have the 9th best increase percentage.
Have a great day and enjoy.
This breakdown begins with the Madden 13 week 2 roster update and goes through the most current update as of 11/9/12 (week 10 update). I started with the week 2 update, because it was the first update based on regular season games. Basically, the week 2 roster update is in response to week 1 performances.
I will continue to update this breakdown until the end of the regular season. Check out your favorite team and compare them with the rest of the league.
Here is the table:
** Wins and winning percentage was based on all games through week 9 of the NFL season. The week 10 roster update for Madden 13 is only based on games played through week 9 of the NFL season.
In future blogs, I plan on breaking down this information even deeper. Stay tuned. Please comment below on any thing that jumps out at you. Cleveland jumps out at me; they only have two wins, but have the 9th best increase percentage.
Have a great day and enjoy.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Why are Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson being disrespected by EA Madden 13?
Throughout the 2012 NFL season, I have closely followed the progress of the leagues five rookie starting quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson). Along the way, I have tracked the EA Sports Madden 13 player ratings for these rookies as well. What I've found is that EA Sports doesn't treat each rookie equally, at least not based on the statistics. In this blog, I wanted to focus on one Madden 13 attribute in particular, that is deep passing accuracy (DAC).
Fans of both the NFL and Madden 13 love the deep ball. Unfortunately, what is going on in the real NFL is not being accurately represented in the video game version.
Let's take a look at the deep accuracy statistics for these five QB's as of 11/9/2012:
* Please note that ProFootballFocus.com (PFF) gives accuracy credit to the QB for a dropped pass and they define a deep pass as "passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield."
Madden 13 DAC is current as of the week 10 roster update on 11/9/2012.
Observations:
1. All of these rookie QB's are exceeding the current 2012 NFL average, except for Brandon Weeden.
2. Among rookie QB's, Robert Griffin III currently has the best Madden 13 deep passing accuracy (DAC) with an 88, but he is 4th in deep accuracy percentage (Acc %).
3. What is going on with Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill? They are both much better than the NFL average. In fact, according to PFF, Tannehill is #1 in the NFL among starting QB's in deep passing accuracy and Wilson is 10th. Is there an reason why Weeden should still be rated higher in DAC than either of these QB's? In my opinion, "NO WAY!"
4. Why is their such a big difference between RGIII and Tannehill? Is EA still going off of NFL draft scouting reports? I think they are.
Listed below are some quotes from Scouts Inc regarding the deep passing of these rookies prior to the NFL draft:
Luck: "Deep accuracy is above average but can improve. Floats some of his deep throws and appears to aim it instead of pulling the string."
RGIII: "Deep accuracy is vastly improved from earlier in his career. Shows ability to drop the ball in between defenders. Anticipation on deep throws is above average."
Tannehill: "More accurate short-to-intermediate than deep at this point. Deep ball sails too often."
Weeden: "Puts good air under deep ball to allow receiver to run underneath and adjust."
Wilson: "Misses the strike zone on occasion and deep accuracy is especially inconsistent"
5. Isn't it possible the scouts were wrong about Tannehill and Wilson? Isn't possible that Tannehill and Wilson have been coached up in regards to their deep passing? It wouldn't shock me if Miami and Seattle fans see this as a form of disrespect from EA Sports.
6. All of these rookies have a long way to go in their careers and these sample sizes are relatively small .That said, we are over half way through the NFL season and EA Sports seems to be missing the boat on rookie QB deep accuracy (DAC) ratings.
Final Thoughts:
I have been an NFL fan all of my life, and a Madden football fan since the very first title was released in 1988. Over the years the game has made amazing strides, but in recent years the inconsistency and inaccuracy in player ratings and attributes has been a sore spot for many Madden fans. In the case of Tannehill and Wilson, I believe the lack of national exposure contributes to their inaccurate DAC ratings.
Also, EA Sports does not have a true ratings team,instead they rely heavily on just one person (Donny Moore). The job is too much for one person. Fans should not expect accuracy and consistency in Madden player ratings until EA expands the ratings team, while at the same time implements standard rating procedures that will apply to each player and team objectively.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Madden 13 Roster update #10 (WEEK 9) - Inside the numbers.
With the conclusion of this week's games, all NFL teams will be at the halfway point (8 games played) of their NFL season. When it comes to Madden 13 player ratings, the roller-coaster that is EA's weekly roster update continues.
On Friday (11/2/12), the Week 9 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
My goal with this blog series is to increase awareness when it comes to Madden players ratings. As of this blog post, EA has still not released information regarding the standard procedures they follow when adjusting each individual player attribute? By refusing to share an objective set of procedures that apply to all players and teams (equally), Madden fans will continue to conclude that player ratings are full of bias and inaccuracy.
Although EA and Donny Moore have dodged this topic for years, I encourage all Madden fans to continue asking them explain their standard procedures for player ratings and individual attributes. I believe fans are entitled a detailed answer to this question.
What is EA afraid of? Maybe, they don't have anything to provide. Maybe, they just make things up from one week to the next. At this point, your guess is as good as mine.
Stop running from this topic EA!
You can contact EA on twitter at @EAMaddenNFL and Donny Moore using @Donny_Moore
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For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked.
+OVR+table.png)
Observations:
1. For the first time this season, the WR position actually received more decreases than increases. As a matter of fact, the week 9 update produced the highest percentage of decreases for offensive players all season (43%).
2. For the second week in a row, the defense as whole was a 50/50 split (complete balance). Year to date, no position has received a high percentage of decreases than the defensive line 47%.
3. At this point, I don't think these percentages are just coincidence. Someone at EA may actually be following this blog and trying to make adjustments. If this is Donny Moore's doing, I say "GOOD JOB DONNY" and it's about time.
4. Here's a three week look from the week 7 update (#8) to week 9 (#10) update.
27 players have had a ratings adjustment in three consecutive weeks.
Six players have been increased each week: Chris Givens, Denarius Moore, Fernando Velasco, Jonte Green, Kai Forbath, and Kamerion Wimbley,
Two players have been decreased each week: DeAngelo Hall and Janoris Jenkins
Four players have been increased week 8 and 9, after being decreased week 7: Donald Thomas, Jeff Linkenbach, Max Starks, and Titus Young Sr.
Two players have been decreased week 8 and 9, after being increased week 7: Barry Richardson and David Baas
Four players were increased week 9 after being decreased week 7 and 8: Akeem Ayers, Brandon Pettigrew, Matthew Stafford and Michael Bennett
Five players were decreased week 9 after being increased week 7 and 8: Anthony Castonzo, Jerry Hughes, Kyle Wilson, O'Brien Schofield, and Quintin Mikell
Two players were increased week 9, decreased week 8 and increased week 7: Mtichell Schwartz and Russell Wilson
Two players were decreased week 9, increased week 8, and decreased week 7: Erik Walden and LaRod Stephen-Howling
5. Here are some final numbers from the Week 9 roster update (#10):
43 players received an increase this week and last week.
24 players received a decrease this week and last week.
15 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
20 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.
*From the week 2 update to present, 101 players have received an increase just one week after receiving a decrease. 95 players have received a decrease just one week after receiving an increase.
In total, that is 196 players who have had their ratings adjusted in the opposite direction after just one week.
That is 196 examples of the "kneejerk" ratings system. When is EA going to realize that a larger sample size is required to produce more accuracy and consistency in Madden player ratings and attributes?
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Thanks for following my blog, enjoy the games.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Is Robert Griffin III really the best rookie QB in the NFL? Playing Devil's Advocate.
First, I am not crazy. I wanted to offer a different perspective on Robert Griffin III (aka RGIII). Currently, fans and experts a like are in love with RGIII. In their eyes, he can can do no wrong.
Would anyone really challenge the majority opinion and question wither or not RGIII is clearly the best rookie QB in the NFL this season? Are there any cracks in his armor? I believe there are cracks and I expect him to come back to earth in the 2nd half of the season.
BEWARE - There is going to be a ton of statistics in this blog, but I challenge you to stay with me because I saved the best for last. I will be looking beyond the general NFL statistics that most fans and TV personalities look at. I have gathered every possible statistic I could think of. In the end maybe you will see a different RGIII, maybe not. I will be comparing RGIII against his rookie counterparts: Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden.
I will also analyze the EA Sports Madden 13 attributes for these five QB's and give my suggestions for some changes.
I gathered all of my statistics from the following websites: www.nfl.com, www.profootballfocus.com (aka: PFF), www.espn.com, and www.sports.yahoo.com.
Here is the first group of statistics:
BLUE = The best rookie QB in that statistic
RED = The worst rookie QB in that statistic
* ESPN QBR explanation (Click Here).
* Here is PFF's explaination of their QB rating, "Offering an alternative to the out-dated standard, we take into account dropped passes, throw aways, spikes, and yards in the air and further adjust the old formula so it makes more sense and is a more accurate measure."
Observations:
At first glance, you will notice that RGIII dominates in many of the more common QB statistics, like: Comp%, Yards per attempt (YPA), Int% and NFL QB rating. Even PFF has him rated as the top rookie QB.
What is ESPN thinking by rating Andrew Luck higher than RGIII? Let me give some explanation. ESPN does what they call "divide credit" among players for the success of the QB.
Here is an excerpt from their ESPN QBR webpage,
"On a pass play, for instance, there are a few basic components:
• The pass protection
• The throw
• The catch
• The run after the catch"
Pay special attention to that last one, "The run after the catch." If you look back up at the previous table, you will see that RGIII leads the rookie QB's in "Yards after Catch" (YAC) per attempt. What does that mean? It means Robert Griffin III is getting a lot of help from his teammates after the catch. By comparison, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson aren't getting much help at all based on their YAC per attempt. I was surprised to see how high the YAC was for Brandon Weeden, but it explains why he can still put up some respectable numbers, despite being the lowest rated QB by all three sources.
Many "experts" on TV and Radio claim RGIII doesn't have much to work with on offense, I bet Wilson and Luck would like to have such shrubs playing on their team. So next time someone wants to give RGIII all the credit, tell them to take a look at his YAC per attempt.
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Here is a table I put together using accuracy statistics from www.profootballfocus.com
Observations:
1. Once again, RGIII shines when you look at the standard completion percentages. What I find fascinating, is percentage attempted by target distance. 19% of Robert Griffin's targets are behind the line of scrimmage, non of these rookies are even close to that figure. A number that high tells me that RGIII is relying heavily on screen plays. Andrew Luck is the exact opposite.
Oh by that way. Everyone talks about RGIII's great deep accuracy. Really? His 6.9% of targets 20 or more yards downfield is tied for 32nd in the NFL with Christian Ponder. In total, RGIII has attempted 13 passes that were targeted 20 or more yards downfield and of those 13, five were caught and one was dropped. Is that really enough for everyone to praise the deep passing of RGIII? I don't think so. Why doesn't anyone talk about the deep passing of Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill? Think about it.
2. FACT - Per PFF statistics, no starting QB (who has played in all games) has attempted or completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than RGIII.
Next time you hear Trent Dilfer of ESPN talk about RGIII's great deep ball, feel free to think, "what deep ball?"
So RGIII might have a great deep ball and he may be very accurate downfield, but I need to see a whole lot more before I'm convinced. By looking at these numbers, defensive coordinators should be more concerned with his screen pass than the deep ball.
3. FYI - According to PFF statistics, from 2008 through 2011, NFL QB's completed 39.9% of their passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield. All of these rookies, with the exception of Brandon Weeden exceed that figure. This season, NFL QB's are completing 42.7% of their deep targets (again, Weeden is the only one not exceeding that percentage).
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Next, we look at some rushing statistics.
* Pressure % = Is a PFF statistic, which is the percentage of dropbacks under pressure per total dropbacks.
Observations:
1. RGIII clearly dominates this category, right? In most respects, yes he does.
That said. RGIII has fumbled the ball more than any other rookie QB, but he has the 2nd best fumble rate. Five of his fumbles having been while rushing, the other two were sack fumbles. Lucky for the Redskins, RGIII has only lost two of those seven fumbles.
Why haven't we heard about RGIII's fumbles? Is it because he's only lost two of them or it's that fact that everyone is so infatuated with him that they can't objectively critique him? I'll go with the later.
2. So far this season, no QB is running with the ball at a higher percentage then RGIII (14%). For comparison, Cam Newton is currently at 12.8% and Mike Vick is at 8.9%. Redskin fans are on "cloud 9" right now, but I don't think RGIII will last long in the NFL if he keeps running with the ball at such a high percentage. RGIII is not Cam Newton. Newton is 3 inches taller and weighes 21 pounds more than RGIII; he can take more of a beating. RGIII is closer to Mike Vick physically and I could see him having similar injury problems if he continues to run so much.
3. Russell Wilson is consistently playing under duress behind Seattle's questionable offensive line. The 42.4% pressure is tied for the 2nd highest in the NFL (with Kevin Kolb). Only Mike Vick has faced more pressure (45.4%) than Russell Wilson.
Speaking of pressure, or lack thereof. Brandon Weeden is playing under the least amount of pressure among these rookies, yet he's still the worst rated rookie QB.
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Next, is my favorite and perhaps the most telling table of them all. The following are the combined defensive statistics of the teams these five rookies have faced through week 7:
RED = The top defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, RED indicates the toughest matchup)
BLUE = The worst defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, BLUE indicates the easiest matchup).
Observations:
1. While RGIII has the highest opponent winning percentage, only three of the seven teams he's faced had a winning record. Of those three teams, the Redskins only won one game (vs. MIN). Luck has also played three teams with a winning record and beat two of them (MIN and GB). Wilson has faced four teams with a winning record and beat two of them (GB and NE). Tannehill has only faced two teams with a winning record and lost both. Weeden has played two teams with a winning record and lost both, plus he has played two .500 teams without posting a win.
2. With regards to pass defense, RGIII has had the easiest road (among rookie QB's). Could this explain his high QB rating and completion percentage? Based on these defensive statistics, he has a 3 to 4% completion percentage advantage on the other rookie QB's.
WARNING - RGIII has five very tough divisional matchups remaining on his schedule, as well as a game at Pittsburgh and versus Baltimore. You've been warned!
3. Andrew Luck is playing against the toughest pass defense in terms of: comp%, TD%, Int%, and QB rating. Besides two remaining games against Houston, Luck has a much easier schedule coming up. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a major statistical step forward in the 2nd half of the season.
4. In terms of yards allowed and points per game, Russell Wilson has been matched up against the stingiest defenses. Could this explain some of the conservative play calling by the Seattle offensive coordinator? Possibly. The Seattle schedule does not get much easier moving forward (with the exception of the Lions and Bills). Seattle has three more divisional games, as well as road games against Chicago and an underrated Miami defense. The NFC West is arguably the best defensive division in the NFL, for that reason expectations should not be high for Wilson over the second half of the season.
5. How bad will Brandon Weeden be once he faces some stiffer competition. While he leads the rookies in passing yards and TD passes, these defensive stats clearly explain why. How many TD's would Andrew Luck or even Russell Wilson have if they went up against the same defense as Weeden? One thing is clear, the difference between Weeden and RGIII should have been a couple rounds not 20 picks in the 1st round.
Think about it. Weeden has a great YAC per attempt (meaning his pass catchers are making plays for him), faced the least amount of pressure (among rookie QB's) and went up against the worst defenses in terms of yards allowed and points allowed.....yet he keeps ending up at the bottom when compared to his rookie counterparts.
6. Then we have Tannehill. He seems to be left out of the rookie QB conversation in many cases. Would you have guesses that he is the 2nd most accurate rookie behind RGIII? Not to mention, he has the highest completion percentage on deep passes and passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield. It's all the more impressive, when you consider that the defenses he's faced have only allowed completions on 60.5% of pass attempts (toughest matchup among rookie QB's). Going forward, Tannehill has a very friendly schedule (with the exception of the Seattle and S.F. matchups). I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as the 3rd best rookie QB (statistically speaking).
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My finals thoughts on RGIII
Is Robert Griffin III really the best rookie QB in the NFL this season? Through seven games, I will have to say "yes." That said, I strongly believe that Andrew Luck will be the top rookie QB by the end of the year. Also, in my opinion there is no guarantee that RGIII will stay healthy all season.
Remember the Cam Newton of 2011? By the end of the season, he had proven the doubters wrong...or so we thought. Cam and the Panthers came into this season with high expectations and playoff aspirations, now look at them. Carolina is 1-5 and everyone around the NFL is questioning Cam's ability to control his emotions and wither or not he can deal with losing. Not to mention, defenses have made adjustments when facing Cam, and so far Carolina has failed to make an adjustment on their end.
I brought up Cam Newton, because I believe RGIII could have a similar fate.
So do you still think Robert Griffin III is the best rookie QB? Where would you rank him among all NFL QB's? Please leave a comment below.
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BONUS MATERIAL
Taking a look at the five rookie QB's and their Madden 13 player ratings and attributes.
Observations:
1. Why has RGIII not received a decrease to his carry attribute after 7 fumbles and a 8.9% fumble rate? Russell Wilson has received a -1 to his CAR, but has fewer fumbles and a better fumble rate of just 4.1%. It's time for RGIII to receive a decrease to this attribute.
2. Statistically, Russell Wilson is the 3rd best rookie in regards to DAC, yet he is dead last among this group with a 74 DAC.
Weeden has no business having an 80 DAC at this point.
Speaking of DAC, why hasn't Tannehill seen a more significant increase since he has been better than all of these rookies (included RGIII). Granted, Tannehill has only attempted 19 deep passess (11 completions), but if RGIII is able to sustain an 88 DAC on only 13 attempts, then Tannehill has a case for a DAC increase.
3. Does 13 deep attempts and just 5 completions (+ 1 drop) justify an 88 DAC? Remember, RGIII has attempted and completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than any other starting QB this season (who have played in all games).
4. No rookie was worse than Andrew Luck in accuracy of passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield (61.5%). Isn't it time to give him a more significant decrease in SAC?
5. In most cases AWR (awareness) is used by EA to increase the OVR rating. Even if that is the case, what has Weeden really done to deserve an increase in awareness? He is aware of the best defenders to throw an interception to and he had the highest fumble rate among these rookies at 15%. Remember, he faced the least amount of pressure when compared to his fellow rookies. BTW - In no way should Weeden have a higher SAC than RGIII (refer back to the accuracy table).
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Thank you for following my blog. Enjoy the games on Sunday.
Many "experts" on TV and Radio claim RGIII doesn't have much to work with on offense, I bet Wilson and Luck would like to have such shrubs playing on their team. So next time someone wants to give RGIII all the credit, tell them to take a look at his YAC per attempt.
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Here is a table I put together using accuracy statistics from www.profootballfocus.com
Observations:
1. Once again, RGIII shines when you look at the standard completion percentages. What I find fascinating, is percentage attempted by target distance. 19% of Robert Griffin's targets are behind the line of scrimmage, non of these rookies are even close to that figure. A number that high tells me that RGIII is relying heavily on screen plays. Andrew Luck is the exact opposite.
Oh by that way. Everyone talks about RGIII's great deep accuracy. Really? His 6.9% of targets 20 or more yards downfield is tied for 32nd in the NFL with Christian Ponder. In total, RGIII has attempted 13 passes that were targeted 20 or more yards downfield and of those 13, five were caught and one was dropped. Is that really enough for everyone to praise the deep passing of RGIII? I don't think so. Why doesn't anyone talk about the deep passing of Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill? Think about it.
2. FACT - Per PFF statistics, no starting QB (who has played in all games) has attempted or completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than RGIII.
Next time you hear Trent Dilfer of ESPN talk about RGIII's great deep ball, feel free to think, "what deep ball?"
So RGIII might have a great deep ball and he may be very accurate downfield, but I need to see a whole lot more before I'm convinced. By looking at these numbers, defensive coordinators should be more concerned with his screen pass than the deep ball.
3. FYI - According to PFF statistics, from 2008 through 2011, NFL QB's completed 39.9% of their passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield. All of these rookies, with the exception of Brandon Weeden exceed that figure. This season, NFL QB's are completing 42.7% of their deep targets (again, Weeden is the only one not exceeding that percentage).
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Next, we look at some rushing statistics.
* Pressure % = Is a PFF statistic, which is the percentage of dropbacks under pressure per total dropbacks.
Observations:
1. RGIII clearly dominates this category, right? In most respects, yes he does.
That said. RGIII has fumbled the ball more than any other rookie QB, but he has the 2nd best fumble rate. Five of his fumbles having been while rushing, the other two were sack fumbles. Lucky for the Redskins, RGIII has only lost two of those seven fumbles.
Why haven't we heard about RGIII's fumbles? Is it because he's only lost two of them or it's that fact that everyone is so infatuated with him that they can't objectively critique him? I'll go with the later.
2. So far this season, no QB is running with the ball at a higher percentage then RGIII (14%). For comparison, Cam Newton is currently at 12.8% and Mike Vick is at 8.9%. Redskin fans are on "cloud 9" right now, but I don't think RGIII will last long in the NFL if he keeps running with the ball at such a high percentage. RGIII is not Cam Newton. Newton is 3 inches taller and weighes 21 pounds more than RGIII; he can take more of a beating. RGIII is closer to Mike Vick physically and I could see him having similar injury problems if he continues to run so much.
3. Russell Wilson is consistently playing under duress behind Seattle's questionable offensive line. The 42.4% pressure is tied for the 2nd highest in the NFL (with Kevin Kolb). Only Mike Vick has faced more pressure (45.4%) than Russell Wilson.
Speaking of pressure, or lack thereof. Brandon Weeden is playing under the least amount of pressure among these rookies, yet he's still the worst rated rookie QB.
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Next, is my favorite and perhaps the most telling table of them all. The following are the combined defensive statistics of the teams these five rookies have faced through week 7:
RED = The top defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, RED indicates the toughest matchup)
BLUE = The worst defensive statistic against the rookie QB's (Basically, BLUE indicates the easiest matchup).
Observations:
1. While RGIII has the highest opponent winning percentage, only three of the seven teams he's faced had a winning record. Of those three teams, the Redskins only won one game (vs. MIN). Luck has also played three teams with a winning record and beat two of them (MIN and GB). Wilson has faced four teams with a winning record and beat two of them (GB and NE). Tannehill has only faced two teams with a winning record and lost both. Weeden has played two teams with a winning record and lost both, plus he has played two .500 teams without posting a win.
2. With regards to pass defense, RGIII has had the easiest road (among rookie QB's). Could this explain his high QB rating and completion percentage? Based on these defensive statistics, he has a 3 to 4% completion percentage advantage on the other rookie QB's.
WARNING - RGIII has five very tough divisional matchups remaining on his schedule, as well as a game at Pittsburgh and versus Baltimore. You've been warned!
3. Andrew Luck is playing against the toughest pass defense in terms of: comp%, TD%, Int%, and QB rating. Besides two remaining games against Houston, Luck has a much easier schedule coming up. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a major statistical step forward in the 2nd half of the season.
4. In terms of yards allowed and points per game, Russell Wilson has been matched up against the stingiest defenses. Could this explain some of the conservative play calling by the Seattle offensive coordinator? Possibly. The Seattle schedule does not get much easier moving forward (with the exception of the Lions and Bills). Seattle has three more divisional games, as well as road games against Chicago and an underrated Miami defense. The NFC West is arguably the best defensive division in the NFL, for that reason expectations should not be high for Wilson over the second half of the season.
5. How bad will Brandon Weeden be once he faces some stiffer competition. While he leads the rookies in passing yards and TD passes, these defensive stats clearly explain why. How many TD's would Andrew Luck or even Russell Wilson have if they went up against the same defense as Weeden? One thing is clear, the difference between Weeden and RGIII should have been a couple rounds not 20 picks in the 1st round.
Think about it. Weeden has a great YAC per attempt (meaning his pass catchers are making plays for him), faced the least amount of pressure (among rookie QB's) and went up against the worst defenses in terms of yards allowed and points allowed.....yet he keeps ending up at the bottom when compared to his rookie counterparts.
6. Then we have Tannehill. He seems to be left out of the rookie QB conversation in many cases. Would you have guesses that he is the 2nd most accurate rookie behind RGIII? Not to mention, he has the highest completion percentage on deep passes and passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield. It's all the more impressive, when you consider that the defenses he's faced have only allowed completions on 60.5% of pass attempts (toughest matchup among rookie QB's). Going forward, Tannehill has a very friendly schedule (with the exception of the Seattle and S.F. matchups). I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as the 3rd best rookie QB (statistically speaking).
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My finals thoughts on RGIII
Is Robert Griffin III really the best rookie QB in the NFL this season? Through seven games, I will have to say "yes." That said, I strongly believe that Andrew Luck will be the top rookie QB by the end of the year. Also, in my opinion there is no guarantee that RGIII will stay healthy all season.
Remember the Cam Newton of 2011? By the end of the season, he had proven the doubters wrong...or so we thought. Cam and the Panthers came into this season with high expectations and playoff aspirations, now look at them. Carolina is 1-5 and everyone around the NFL is questioning Cam's ability to control his emotions and wither or not he can deal with losing. Not to mention, defenses have made adjustments when facing Cam, and so far Carolina has failed to make an adjustment on their end.
I brought up Cam Newton, because I believe RGIII could have a similar fate.
So do you still think Robert Griffin III is the best rookie QB? Where would you rank him among all NFL QB's? Please leave a comment below.
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BONUS MATERIAL
Taking a look at the five rookie QB's and their Madden 13 player ratings and attributes.
Observations:
1. Why has RGIII not received a decrease to his carry attribute after 7 fumbles and a 8.9% fumble rate? Russell Wilson has received a -1 to his CAR, but has fewer fumbles and a better fumble rate of just 4.1%. It's time for RGIII to receive a decrease to this attribute.
2. Statistically, Russell Wilson is the 3rd best rookie in regards to DAC, yet he is dead last among this group with a 74 DAC.
Weeden has no business having an 80 DAC at this point.
Speaking of DAC, why hasn't Tannehill seen a more significant increase since he has been better than all of these rookies (included RGIII). Granted, Tannehill has only attempted 19 deep passess (11 completions), but if RGIII is able to sustain an 88 DAC on only 13 attempts, then Tannehill has a case for a DAC increase.
3. Does 13 deep attempts and just 5 completions (+ 1 drop) justify an 88 DAC? Remember, RGIII has attempted and completed fewer passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield than any other starting QB this season (who have played in all games).
4. No rookie was worse than Andrew Luck in accuracy of passes targeted 0-9 yards downfield (61.5%). Isn't it time to give him a more significant decrease in SAC?
5. In most cases AWR (awareness) is used by EA to increase the OVR rating. Even if that is the case, what has Weeden really done to deserve an increase in awareness? He is aware of the best defenders to throw an interception to and he had the highest fumble rate among these rookies at 15%. Remember, he faced the least amount of pressure when compared to his fellow rookies. BTW - In no way should Weeden have a higher SAC than RGIII (refer back to the accuracy table).
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Thank you for following my blog. Enjoy the games on Sunday.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Madden 13 Roster update #9 (WEEK 8) - Defense sees balance, the offense continues to get a pass.
Ok, life is finally starting to slow down and I plan on producing two blogs today (this being the first). The week 8 Madden 13 roster update gave us some balance on defense, but continued the trend of inflated offense.
On Friday (10/26/12), the Week 8 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
The is the 7th blog post in this series. The goal is to show fans and EA the trends by position when it comes to weekly increases and decreases. I do not support weekly attribute adjustments; I believe a larger sample size is required for more accuracy and consistency. That said. EA refuses to change their ways, which results in both inaccuracy and inconsistency in Madden player ratings.
In case you missed it, here my blog post from last week: Update #8 (Week 7)
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For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.
Observations:
1. The biggest news this week was that the defense had complete balance in regards to increases and decreases (50/50). This was primarily due to the DL receiving seven more decreases than increases. This is the 3rd week in a row the DLine has seen more decreases than increases, no other position on defense has done that this season. As a matter of fact, on defense (other than the DLine) only the Safety position has had more decreases than increases anytime season (week 5 and 7).
On the season, the Dline has received the highest percentage of decreases at 46% (of all positions). Their counterparts on the OLine have only received 41% decreases this season and had a whooping 41 players increased this week. Those 41 increases were a high for any position this year and that was coming off an NFL week where six teams had a bye.
2. On the offensive side of the ball, you will see the highest percentage of increase (64%), since the week 3 update (77%). Of the 64%, much of that was due to the OL receiving 23 more increases than decreases and the WR's seeing 11 more increases than decreases. That is a +34 in only two positions.
For the third week in a row, QB's received more decreases than increases (7 decreases/5 increases). Get this, prior to this update, no other position on offense had received more decreases than increases in a given week. After weeks of pointing out the how lopsided the TE position was, EA responded this week by giving them only 6 increases to 8 decreases. This is long overdue. Maybe it's just coincidence, they couldn't actually be reading my blog, could they? Now, we need to get them to bring the WR position back down to earth.
3. For the second week in a row the WR position received it's largest number of increases with 24. Maybe EA is afraid to give these divas what they deserve. On the season, WR's have received 68% increases and only once have they received 40% or more in decreases in a given week (40% exactly in the week 6 update). Last week, I pointed out that www.profootballfocus.com gives EA plenty of options to decrease at WR in a given week. During week 7 alone, 41 WR's received a negative grade according to PFF. Unfortunately, Donny Moore continues to disregard his most trusted source, especially when it comes to WR's.
Did you know that 6 WR's that got increased this week actually received a negative overall grade from PFF for their week 7 performance. Those WR's are: Cecil Shorts (-5.7), Denarius Moore (-1.4), Josh Gordon (-1.3), Darrius H-Bey (-0.8), Miles Austin (-0.6), and Santana Moss (-0.5).
BTW - Cecil Shorts received the worst grade of any NFL WR for his week 7 performance.
What do all of these WR's have in common besides a negative grade from PFF? Well, all of them except Darrius H-Bey scored a TD in week 7 (Moss scored two). With the exception of Miles Austin, they all received a negative receiving grade as well as a negative overall grade from PFF for week 7.
*Austin received a -1.1 in blocking which brought down his overall grade.
EA Sports might say that these increases were not just based on the week 7 alone. I completely disagree.
Check this out:
Austin and H-Bey, both received a decrease in the week 7 update, only to receive an increase in the week 8 update.
Denarius Moore and Josh Gordon have received increases in both the week 7 and 8 roster updates.
So it's clear that EA and Mr. Moore base many of these rating adjustments on the previous week's performance. Of course, they utilize a "highlight based" rating system. Does a TD really define a player true abilities and should all other aspects of their play be ignored if they score a TD? I don't think so.
4. Wait a minute. Is there evidence that Donny Moore does look at ProFootballFocus? Hmmmm. The answer is: Yes and No.
In this week's roster update blog, Donny noted that Free Safety Rahim Moore (DEN) received an increase to his tackle attribute from 60 to 72. He also noted that safety Thomas DeCoud (ATL) received a decrease to his tackle attribute from 75 to 66.
Why did EA do that? Well, I checked out PFF and their Tackle Efficiency Statistics for safeties (signature stat section). What I found was that Rahim Moore is ranked #1 for safeties so far this season (he hasn't missed a single tackle this year). I also noticed that DeCoud is dead last with a tackle efficiency rating of 3.7. That 3.7 means DeCoud misses a tackle every 3.7 attempts. That is a horrible number to say the least. Moore has 40 total tackles to zero missed tackles. That a big difference.
So what is my problem with this. On the surface, nothing. Moore has earned his increase this season and at the same time DeCoud has earned his decrease. But, let's look a little deeper.
The safety with the 2nd best tackle efficiency is none other then Moore's teammate, SS Mike Adams with a 25.0. Currently, Adams has a 69 tackle attribute in Madden 13, just 3 points better than DeCoud.
The safety with the 2nd worst tackle efficiency is 49er SS Donte Whitner with a 4.4. Whitner currently has a 87 tackle attribute in Madden 13. That is not a typo. This is the inconsistency we get time after time from EA when it comes to Madden player ratings and attributes. They do not objectively apply attribute ratings to each player on each team. Why in the hell is Whitner getting a pass, when DeCoud gets hammered? Either Donny doesn't want to face the wrath of 49er fans on twitter or he simply has no objective procedures for making attribute adjustments. I actually think it's both.
Now, some might say, "What about last year?" Here you go.
Tackle efficiency for 2011:
Mike Adams, 10.5
Whitner, 10.5
DeCoud, 9.5
Moore, 3.9
So, Moore was the worst last year and has since improved drastically. He deserves the increase. Adams has improved as well, but has only seen his TAK increase 2 points since the Release Day roster update. Very little separates DeCoud and Whitner in 2011 or 2012, yet Whitner has only seen a 2 point decrease all season from 89 to 87 TAK.
I would like to thank EA and Donny for adding these two specific attribute changes to their week 8 ratings blog. While they thought it would show accuracy, consistency, and attention to detail, it actual shows the complete opposite.
Is this really the type of Madden player ratings that fans and players deserve? Why can't EA be objective?
Does a Falcons fans have a reason to be upset with DeCoud's decrease? Yes and no. Yes, because EA and Donny only targeted their player and essentially ignored the 49er player. That said. DeCoud deserves the decrease so they can't complain about that part.
I urge all of you to start looking deeper at all available statistics. There are several players who have very inaccurate TAK attributes, not just the few pointed out here. I suggested that tackle efficiency be used for the TAK attribute prior to the release of Madden 13 (Click here), but it fell on deaf ears.
5. Here are some final numbers from the Week 8 roster update (#9):
38 players received an increase this week and last week.
18 players received a decrease this week and last week.
20 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
14 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.
*From the week 2 update to present, 86 players have received an increase just one week after receiving a decrease. 75 players have received a decrease just one week after receiving an increase.
In total, that is 161 players who have had their ratings adjusted in the opposite direction after just one week.
As far as I'm concerned, that is 161 reasons why EA and Donny Moore should start looking at larger sample sizes (3 to 4 week blocks).
Maybe Donny Moore should go after a career in politics, flip flopping 161 times should qualify him for a job.
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Thanks for following my blog and stay tuned for one more blog post today, it should should spark a lot of discussion.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Madden 13 Roster update #8 (WEEK 7) - The good and the bad. The numbers don't lie.
As work continues to take up most of my time, I am running behind on my blog. In the next couple of weeks, I will be moving to a new schedule at work which should free up some extra time for my blog.
The week 7 update (#8) had some very similar results to the week 6 update.
On Friday (10/19/12), the Week 7 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
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For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.
Observations:
1. First, look at the total percentages on offense from week 6 and week 7, they are exactly the same (59% increase to 41% decrease). That is not a typo. While it's better than the early weeks of the season, it's still going to result in having too many overrated offensive players by the end of the season.
2. For the 2nd week in a row there are have been more decreases for QB's than increases. Is this a step in the right direction? Time will tell.
3. Running backs were exactly the same in week 6 and week 7 (50/50). This is the 3rd time Donny has adjusted 22 running backs in a given week (week 2, 6, and 7). He has never adjusted fewer than 22 running backs and never more than 24. Is this some kind of target he is trying to hit every week? Do you believe that 22 to 24 running backs need to be adjusted each week? I don't. REMEMBER - I believe the first question a player ratings person should ask prior to any adjustment is, "What attributes has this player consistently been exceeding or not living up to?"
As of this week, running backs now have the most balance on offense from week 2 to week 7 at 57% increases to 43% decreases.
4. For the second week in a row, Donny was able to find some TE's who deserved decreases. The position as a whole is still very lopsided.
5. I don't know what it is about the Wide Receiver position, but EA just refuses to find any balance here. Does it makes sense that such a high percentage of WR's are seeing increases (69%), while at the same time a high percentage of CB's are seeing increases (62%)? Couldn't someone argue that the success of a WR is at the expense of a CB and vice versa?
Trying to answer my own question, I went to www.profootballfocus.com to crunch some numbers.
*These numbers are based on players who have seen at least 25% of their teams offensive or defensive snaps through week 6:
- 56% of wide receivers has a positive overall grade from PFF (108 total players)
- 44% of cornerbacks have a positive overall grade from PFF (100 total players)
That is not a typo folks, you can go look at PFF's signature stats by position and see for yourself.
Here are some more numbers:
30 WR's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 34 WR's received negative grades based on week 5 only. So if EA insists on making weekly player rating adjustments, there are plenty of WR's to decrease (note - that doesn't include other players who see a lower percentage of snaps).
40 CB's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 39 received negative grades based on week 5 only. Again, there are plenty of players to decrease.
6. In regards to total increases and decreases, the defense is very close to being balanced in this week's update. Does this show that EA is finally listening? No, because you can't disregard the offensive players.
7. Here are some final numbers from the Week 7 roster update:
36 players received an increase this week and last week.
13 players received a decrease this week and last week.
16 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
16 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.
Over the last five updates, 66 players have received an increase after being decreased the previous week. 61 players have received a decrease after being increased the previous week. That is a total of 127 players. You know what that tell me? It tells me, that EA and Donny Moore do not have a consistent and accurate way of rating NFL players. It tells me, that they need to look at larger sample sizes (3 to 4 games) to avoid wasting time.
If EA would go to a 3 to 4 week evaluation period, they would have more time to correct the inaccuracy and inconsistency in other attributes, such: SAC, MAC, DAC, KAC, TAK, CAT, BSH, ect, ect. I could go on. I challenge you to look at each individual attribute in Madden 13 and sort them by best to worst at each position. You will be shocked at what you see. Then, go look at the best available statistics and game tape. I think you will see that there is a lot of work to do within each attribute rating.
When it comes to rating accuracy and consistency, no one at EA Sports holds Donny Moore accountable. Think about it? When you are at work, doesn't someone hold you accountable? You bet they do. In the case of Madden player ratings, the only people left to hold Mr. Moore accountable would be the fans and players. Unfortunately, most fans are only concerned with their favorite team and can not be objective. Players are too concerned with OVR and SPD.
Wouldn't it just be easier if a real ratings team was used by EA Sports. I think it would be. Player rating inaccuracy and inconsistency effects all Madden players. Though some Madden players will claim ratings don't matter, the majority of us know that they do. If player ratings didn't matter, then why was Green Bay the most used team in Madden 12? Why do the top Madden players gravitate to the highest rated teams? The fact is, ratings and attributes matter. Yes, some attributes matter more than others, but EA's goal should always be to produce the most accurate and consistent ratings possible.
Get this, EA and Donny Moore can't even provide fans with the procedures they use when rating each attribute. I've asked several times and have received no answer. Without objective procedures, fans can not expect accuracy and consistency within Madden player ratings.
Final Thoughts:
Recently, an EA Game Changer told me that he liked my blog, but not the fact that I make people look incompetent at their job. Simply put, "If the shoe fits, wear it."
I'm not out to hurt anyone's feelings, but are people really this thin-skinned? EA is the only NFL video game, and last I checked Donny Moore is the so called "ratings czar". Both EA and Donny are solely responsible for the Madden player ratings. If I should be directing my criticism and suggestions to someone else, please let me know. If EA wants to be the only NFL game in town, they need to be open to constructive criticism.
My goal is and always will be to challenge EA to produce the most accurate player attributes possible.
The week 7 update (#8) had some very similar results to the week 6 update.
On Friday (10/19/12), the Week 7 Madden 13 roster update went live (Here is EA's Blog).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For this blog, I will update you on the OVR changes that have taken place since the Week 2 update. I started at week two, because that is the first update after the regular season began.
* Below are some tables I created to track ALL increases and decreases (based on OVR only) that EA publishes on their website. This table will allow you to see what positions are getting the most increases, decreases, and which ones are being overlooked all together.
Observations:
1. First, look at the total percentages on offense from week 6 and week 7, they are exactly the same (59% increase to 41% decrease). That is not a typo. While it's better than the early weeks of the season, it's still going to result in having too many overrated offensive players by the end of the season.
2. For the 2nd week in a row there are have been more decreases for QB's than increases. Is this a step in the right direction? Time will tell.
3. Running backs were exactly the same in week 6 and week 7 (50/50). This is the 3rd time Donny has adjusted 22 running backs in a given week (week 2, 6, and 7). He has never adjusted fewer than 22 running backs and never more than 24. Is this some kind of target he is trying to hit every week? Do you believe that 22 to 24 running backs need to be adjusted each week? I don't. REMEMBER - I believe the first question a player ratings person should ask prior to any adjustment is, "What attributes has this player consistently been exceeding or not living up to?"
As of this week, running backs now have the most balance on offense from week 2 to week 7 at 57% increases to 43% decreases.
4. For the second week in a row, Donny was able to find some TE's who deserved decreases. The position as a whole is still very lopsided.
5. I don't know what it is about the Wide Receiver position, but EA just refuses to find any balance here. Does it makes sense that such a high percentage of WR's are seeing increases (69%), while at the same time a high percentage of CB's are seeing increases (62%)? Couldn't someone argue that the success of a WR is at the expense of a CB and vice versa?
Trying to answer my own question, I went to www.profootballfocus.com to crunch some numbers.
*These numbers are based on players who have seen at least 25% of their teams offensive or defensive snaps through week 6:
- 56% of wide receivers has a positive overall grade from PFF (108 total players)
- 44% of cornerbacks have a positive overall grade from PFF (100 total players)
That is not a typo folks, you can go look at PFF's signature stats by position and see for yourself.
Here are some more numbers:
30 WR's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 34 WR's received negative grades based on week 5 only. So if EA insists on making weekly player rating adjustments, there are plenty of WR's to decrease (note - that doesn't include other players who see a lower percentage of snaps).
40 CB's received a negative grade from PFF based on their week 6 performance only and 39 received negative grades based on week 5 only. Again, there are plenty of players to decrease.
6. In regards to total increases and decreases, the defense is very close to being balanced in this week's update. Does this show that EA is finally listening? No, because you can't disregard the offensive players.
7. Here are some final numbers from the Week 7 roster update:
36 players received an increase this week and last week.
13 players received a decrease this week and last week.
16 players received an increase this week after a decrease last week.
16 players received a decrease this week after an increase last week.
Over the last five updates, 66 players have received an increase after being decreased the previous week. 61 players have received a decrease after being increased the previous week. That is a total of 127 players. You know what that tell me? It tells me, that EA and Donny Moore do not have a consistent and accurate way of rating NFL players. It tells me, that they need to look at larger sample sizes (3 to 4 games) to avoid wasting time.
If EA would go to a 3 to 4 week evaluation period, they would have more time to correct the inaccuracy and inconsistency in other attributes, such: SAC, MAC, DAC, KAC, TAK, CAT, BSH, ect, ect. I could go on. I challenge you to look at each individual attribute in Madden 13 and sort them by best to worst at each position. You will be shocked at what you see. Then, go look at the best available statistics and game tape. I think you will see that there is a lot of work to do within each attribute rating.
When it comes to rating accuracy and consistency, no one at EA Sports holds Donny Moore accountable. Think about it? When you are at work, doesn't someone hold you accountable? You bet they do. In the case of Madden player ratings, the only people left to hold Mr. Moore accountable would be the fans and players. Unfortunately, most fans are only concerned with their favorite team and can not be objective. Players are too concerned with OVR and SPD.
Wouldn't it just be easier if a real ratings team was used by EA Sports. I think it would be. Player rating inaccuracy and inconsistency effects all Madden players. Though some Madden players will claim ratings don't matter, the majority of us know that they do. If player ratings didn't matter, then why was Green Bay the most used team in Madden 12? Why do the top Madden players gravitate to the highest rated teams? The fact is, ratings and attributes matter. Yes, some attributes matter more than others, but EA's goal should always be to produce the most accurate and consistent ratings possible.
Get this, EA and Donny Moore can't even provide fans with the procedures they use when rating each attribute. I've asked several times and have received no answer. Without objective procedures, fans can not expect accuracy and consistency within Madden player ratings.
Final Thoughts:
Recently, an EA Game Changer told me that he liked my blog, but not the fact that I make people look incompetent at their job. Simply put, "If the shoe fits, wear it."
I'm not out to hurt anyone's feelings, but are people really this thin-skinned? EA is the only NFL video game, and last I checked Donny Moore is the so called "ratings czar". Both EA and Donny are solely responsible for the Madden player ratings. If I should be directing my criticism and suggestions to someone else, please let me know. If EA wants to be the only NFL game in town, they need to be open to constructive criticism.
My goal is and always will be to challenge EA to produce the most accurate player attributes possible.
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