Thursday, May 24, 2012

The Madden Manniac's 1st Annual Madden NFL giveaway. Win a copy of Madden 13.

In lieu of a Memorial Day weekend blog, I decided to have a contest.  For the winner, I will preorder a copy of Madden NFL 13.  Below are the details (Read them closely, otherwise you may be disqualified).

HOW TO WIN A COPY OF MADDEN NFL 13

1.  In the comment section of this blog post, propose a unique Madden attribute topic that you would like me to explore.  This must be a topic that I have never blogged about.  (Tip:  Review my blog archives to see what I have done in the past; it goes back to December 2011. You can access the archives by scrolling down the right side of that page.)  

If you fell lucky, you can post your suggestion and hope I haven't covered it already.

2.  Please indicate what gaming system you own (PS3 or Xbox 360).  This will determine what copy of Madden 13 you will receive.  

3.  You must have a twitter account.  Include your twitter name with your suggestion.  I will contact the winner via twitter.  At that time, I will need your shipping information.

4.  Only one entry per person (twitter account).  If you are found to be using two or more accounts, you will be disqualified.

5.  The entry deadline is 12 midnight PST on Sunday, June 3rd, 2012.

Picking a winner:

1.  I will review all of the suggestions and select ONE winner.  I will announce the winner via twitter on June 5th, 2012 at 7pm PST.  I will follow the winner on twitter and that person will need to follow me.  This way the winner can send me their shipping information privately through direct message.

After researching the winning topic, I will blog about it no later than Sunday, June 17th, 2012.

Good luck to everyone.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You can follow me on twitter @mannmicj

Have a safe Memorial Day weekend and please DON'T DRINK AND DRIVE.









Sunday, May 20, 2012

Attribute Spotlight: Speed (SPD) Projecting Madden 13 Rookie Wide Receiver's


ATTENTION - As of now Madden 13 will not give gamers the ability to hold fantasy drafts, online or offline.  If you would like to let your voice be heard by voting and commenting on the "fantasy draft" topic, please go to this link  http://www.easports.com/gamechangers/ideas?campaignId=27782
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


This is the 3rd installment of my Madden 12 speed series.  It includes my Wide Receiver (WR) speed projections for Madden 13.  For a full description of how I went about collecting the data and  projecting speeds (RB and CB included), please see my original speed blog at this link:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html

Also, here is the 2nd blog in the series were I projected QB and ILB (MLB) speed ratings for Madden 13:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/projecting-madden-13-rookie-qb-and-ilb.html

I strongly encourage you to read the first blog if you haven't already.  My projections will make more sense if you do.

I collected the speed ratings and 40 times of all Madden 12 rookie QBs, WRs, RBs, ILBs, and CBs (214 players total).  I am fine tuning my formula as I collect more data, so there may be slight differences from my last blog as a result of that additional data.

Here is the new graph which now includes 214 rookies from Madden 12:




Remember the closer the points are to the trend-line, the stronger the correlation between 40 time and Madden 12 speed (SPD).  Several points are actually in the exact same location, basically stacking on one another.  My goal is to collect this data on all Madden 12 rookies, I still have several positions to go.  As discussed in my previous blog, any R^2 value over 0.80 is considered a strong correlation.  After adding the WR's, the R^2 value actually increased from 0.866 to the current 0.8671.  The correlation is getting stronger as I add positions to the data.  If you are interested, here is a link that explains this type of statistical analysis:  http://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/correlation.htm

These predictions are based on Madden 12 rookie speed rating trends.  I don't claim that it is 100%, but I believe in many cases it's going to be very close.

Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) attribute projections for the incoming rookie WRs (including all drafted, undrafted free agents who have signed with a team, and combine participants).





* PLEASE NOTE - If a player didn't run at the combine, I used their Pro Day time.  I consider Pro Day times less reliable since all players are not timed together like at the combine, but it's the best available data.




Justin Blackmon (#5 overall pick) received an 88 SPD in MUT12 (Madden Ultimate Team).  His ProDay time of 4.46 resulted in me predicting a 90 SPD, he did not run at the NFL combine.  I would not be surprised to see Blackmon get a bump in SPD by the time Madden 13 is released.


Michael Floyd (#13 overall pick) received a 91 SPD in MUT12.  My projection has him rated an 89 SPD based on his 4.47 (40) at the combine.  He was just a tick slower than Blackmon's ProDay time.  Although my formula has Floyd at 89 and Blackmon at 90, that is really splitting hairs when you are talking about a difference of .01 seconds in 40 times.


Kendall Wright (#20 overall pick) received a 92 SPD in MUT12.  I projected him at a 91 SPD based on his ProDay time of 4.42.  Either of these ratings could be debated due to Wright running a horrible 40 time (4.61) at the Combine, which would project to an 82 speed.  The reason I used his Proday time, was that I believe EA will use that time as well, when it comes to Wright.  His 40 time was a complete shock to many observers at the combine and the general belief was that Wright was much faster then 4.62.  Wright redeemed himself at his ProDay; for that reason, I believe his combine time will be disregarded when it comes to his Madden speed attribute.  The MUT12 speed of 92 also supports the use of his ProDay time.


Stephen Hill (2nd round pick) received a 96 SPD in MUT12.  I projected him at 94 based on his combine time.  I stand by the 94 SPD projection and I hope EA will come down from the 96 he received in  MUT.  I don't believe every rookie MUT attribute is set in stone, but I could be wrong about that:)


Alshon Jeffrey (2nd round pick) received an 87 SPD in MUT12.  His ProDay time of 4.48, projects to an 89 speed based on my data.  Jeffrey did not run the 40 at the combine, so his ProDay time is the best available data.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Many of my WR projections are in the ballpark based on the few MUT ratings that are available.  I am finding that the later a player is picked in the draft (or if they go undrafted), the correlation between 40 time and Madden speed tends to be even stronger.  I am planning a separate blog about that.  


This entire blog series was created to refute claims from EA's (Donny Moore), that in his own words "40 time does not equal = Madden speed rating, that is the quickest answer."  He has tweeted similar statements several times.


Is the correlation between a rookie's 40 time and the assigned Madden speed 100%?


No, but the statistics don't lie.  An R^2 value of 0.8671 is a very strong correlation and that can't be denied.  I believe many of these predictions will be very close to the actual speed attributes given to these rookies in Madden 13.


I am very glad that EA uses something objective like 40 time, to assign SPD to Madden rookies.  Why they deny it, is beyond me.  I plan to do every position, so that I have the best possible data set.  


Moving forward, I don't want to hear anyone at EA claiming that 40 times don't contribute heavily (if not solely in many cases) to Madden speed.  It's just not true.  The 40 does contribute, and I believe it's the most important factor in determining rookie Madden speed attributes.


By insisting that they use "game speed", EA will continue to lose credibility when it comes to player ratings.  They simply can't afford that.  "Game Speed" sounds cool and some people might think that is what fans what to hear.  I would argue, that "Game Speed" is the opposite of what fans want to hear.  When I hear them say, "we use game speed", I instantly think about how subjective (bias) that term is.  Many Madden fans already believe that there is too much bias in player ratings.  There are no clear procedures for objectively assigning player attributes to every player regardless of the team they play on.  Why in the world would EA want to add fuel to that fire by denying the use of something more subjective (unbiased), like 40 times?
  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


** Some final thoughts for EA:


1.  Ratings and attributes do matter in gameplay, even though some folks continue to believe they don't.  If attributes didn't matter, then why is Tom Brady better in the game than Colt McCoy?  Oh Oh.  They do matter.  The difference between Brady and McCoy in Madden is the assigned attributes.  The fact that fans want those attributes to be objectively and accurately assigned is not too much to ask.  Is it?  


2.  Since attributes do matter when it comes to gameplay, you need to give the ratings department the resources and respect it deserves.  Donny Moore can't be expected to provide accurate and consistent ratings on his own, it's too much data.  


Give the man more resources.  By that I mean, more people to help him and more funding for his department.  My guess, is that the ratings department is toward the bottom of the list when it comes to funding the development of Madden games.  


3.  Please, for the love of all things good and evil, give Donny Moore a new Overall (OVR) formula to work with.  Anyone who has spent some time dissecting the OVR formula in Madden, can see that it's broken and it forces Donny to assign inaccurate attribute ratings.  Get rid of OVR and go to an independent ranking system that has no connection to attributes.  Rating attributes to reach a predetermined OVR is simply inexcusable and only adds to the inaccuracy and inconsistency in player ratings.


4.  Develop a clear set of procedures for rating each and every player attribute.  Those procedures should be objectively applied to all players and teams regardless of popularity.  After you develop this set of standard operating procedures (SOP), train your staff on how to use them, that way everyone is on the same page.  Having SOP will allow others to step in and help Donny, but will hold everyone to the same standard as well as providing guidance.  This would require you to build a ratings team, "yes" a real team.  Donny will no longer be the punching bag for frustrated gamers.  


I will be the first to admit, that no ratings system will be flawless and fans will always defend their favorite players and teams (right or wrong).  


The #1 question that Madden fans want answered, in regards to player ratings is, "How is each of these ratings and attributes being determined?"  If you develop a set of Standard Operating Procedures for player ratings and release that information to fans, it would not only educate them on the your process, but it will eliminate the frustration of not knowing.


5.  Last, but not least.  Ratings and attributes need to be giving the same respect and time at community day events that other aspects of the game receive.  Donny Moore and the ratings "team" should be allotted time to hear:  ideas, suggestions, and concerns, in regards to ratings/attributes.  This is were the added resources come into play.  Donny can't be everywhere, he needs help.  The ratings department needs to represented by people who know how deliver accurate and consistent player ratings.  Remember, it's not just fans of popular teams that spend $60 a year on Madden NFL football.  Each and every fan base is entitled to objective, accurate, and consistent player ratings.


 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


If you want to see the projections for the Madden 13 rookie RB's and CB's, you can find them here:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html

QB and ILB (MLB) speed projections are here:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/projecting-madden-13-rookie-qb-and-ilb.html

The projections are toward the end of the blog.

Stay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections.  Thank you for following my blog.  You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj


Next week I plan to take a break from rookie speed projections and release a blog I have been working on for a few weeks now.  It's should be fun and will be out early due to Memorial Day weekend. I will be on a fishing trip and won't have time to release it over the weekend.


As always, have a great week.



*** View and vote on all of my Game Changer Ideas here:  http://mgi-gc.easports.com/a/ideafactory.do?id=18503&mode=author&discussionFilter=active



Friday, May 11, 2012

Projecting Madden 13 Rookie QBs and ILBs speed.

See my blog on the Block Shed (BSH) rating for DT's and DE's:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/06/attribute-spotlight-block-shed-bsh.html  (You will be surprised.)

ATTENTION - As of now Madden 13 will not give gamers the ability to hold fantasy drafts, online or offline.  If you would like to let your voice be heard by voting and commenting on the "fantasy draft" topic, please go to this link  http://www.easports.com/gamechangers/ideas?campaignId=27782


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



This is the followup to my last blog which focused on Madden 12 speed and how it was determined for incoming rookies.  Here is the link:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html

My previous blog describes the steps I took to evaluate and project speed the for the Madden 13 rookies.  My first blog projected the speed (SPD) attribute of the incoming rookie running backs and cornerbacks.  I strongly encourage you to read the first blog if you haven't already.  My projections will make more since if you do.

In this blog I am projecting the speed (SPD) of the Madden 13 Quarterbacks and Inside Linebackers.  I collected the speed ratings and 40 times of all Madden 12 rookie QBs, RBs, ILBs, and CBs (141 players total).  I am fine tuning my formula as I collect more data, so there may be slight differences from my last blog as a result of that additional data.

Here is the new graph which now includes 141 rookies from Madden 12:


Remember the closer the points are to the trend-line, the stronger the correlation between 40 time and Madden 12 speed (SPD).  Several points are actually in the exact same location, basically stacking on one another.  My goal is to collect this data on all Madden 12 rookies, I still have several positions to go.  As discussed in my previous blog, any R^2 value over 0.80 is considered a strong correlation.  After doing two more positions, the R^2 value actually increased from 0.8494 to the current 0.866.  The correlation is getting stronger as I add positions to the data.  If you are interested, here is a link that explains this type of statistical analysis:  http://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/correlation.htm

This predictions are based on Madden 12 rookie speed rating trends.  I don't claim that it is 100%, but I believe in many cases it's going to be very close.

Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) attribute projections for the incoming rookies QBs (including all drafted QBs or undrafted free agents that have signed with a team):



* PLEASE NOTE - If a player didn't run at the combine, I used their Pro Day time.  I consider Pro Day times less reliable since all players are not timed together like at the combine, but it's the best available data.




Robert Griffin III (#2 overall pick) received a 93 SPD in MUT12 (Madden Ultimate Team).  His combine 40 of 4.41 resulted in me predicting a 92 SPD, which is pretty darn close.  RGIII was the 2nd overall pick in the draft and had a rumored unofficial 40 time of 4.32.  To be fair, RGIII was also a very accomplished high school track athlete who set several state records in Texas.  There is a lot of information out there that would back up a 93 SPD rating.


Andrew Luck (#1 overall pick) received an 82 SPD in MUT12, I projected a 79 SPD.  Being the #1 overall pick, I believe EA is giving Luck the benefit of the doubt here.  Some at EA will call it game speed.  If it was based on so-called "game speed", it would have been against college competition.  There is a significant difference in the speed of the NFL game versus the college game.  If you were going to ATTEMPT to rate a player based on "game speed" and Madden NFL, would it not make more sense to do it against NFL competition?  In my previous blog, I showed that 40 times have a significant impact on rookie speed, despite mixed information on twitter from EA --- see my first speed blog.  That said, it also shows that after the rookie year the correlation between 40 time and Madden speed weakens.  It should be noted, that MUT attributes tend to be overrated and inflated in many cases, so 82 might not be Luck's final Madden 13 speed.


Update (5/12/12)*** There is some conflicting information Andrew Luck's MUT12 card speed.  This image from PastaPadre.com, shows 78 SPD, which would be closer to my projection.  Here is the link:  http://www.pastapadre.com/2012/05/11/how-to-get-andrew-luck-for-use-in-madden-nfl-12-and-13-ultimate-team-modes


Here is a link that shows 82 SPD for Andrew Luck:  http://maddenmatrix.com/2012/04/select-rookies-receive-madden-nfl-mut-cards/

The first card has several bloated attribute ratings (with the exception of SPD) and the other has more reserved attribute ratings, with the higher speed.  This indicates that MUT rookies speeds are not guaranteed to be the initial Madden 13 rookie speed, but it's probably in the ball park.


Ryan Tannehill (#8 overall pick) received an 83 SPD in MUT12, my data projects an 80 SPD based on NFLDraftscout.com.  It's in the ball park, but not dead on. Again, my research does not guarantee 100% accuracy, but these projections will be very close in most cases.  


*** (Update 5/13/12) Please note - This article by NFL.com says Tannehill ran a 4.62: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/29/tannehill-runs-4-6...yard-dash-at-texas-am-pro-day/ .  Based on my projections, a 4.62 would result in a 82 SPD.  That makes his 83 SPD in MUT 12 a pretty fair rating.

Brandon Weeden (#22 overall pick) received a 64 SPD in MUT12.  My data projects a 69 SPD, based on a Pro Day 40 of 4.89.  He did not run at the combine which may have cost him in his MUT speed rating.  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Here are my Madden 13 speed (SPD) projections for the rookie Inside Linebackers:






Note - Bobby Wagner didn't run at the combine.  My guess is he will end up in the high 80's, not at 90.  The 90 speed is based on my formula and no other adjustments.  


Luke Kuechly (#9 overall pick) received an 86 SPD in MUT 12, I projected him at 84 based on his combine time.  Kuechly was the only Inside Linebacker (MLB) taken in the first round and was well hyped going into the draft.  Being a top ten pick gives him an edge over other rookies based on EA's previous rating trends.  Again, I believe many of these projections will be right on or within a point or two, especially for the rookies draft after the first round.


No other Inside Linebacker (MLB's) received a MUT 12 rookie card.  


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


If you want to see the projections for the RB's and CB's, you can find them here:  http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/05/attribute-spotlight-speed-spd-rookie.html

The projections are toward the end of the blog.


*** View and vote on all of my Game Changer Ideas here:  http://mgi-gc.easports.com/a/ideafactory.do?id=18503&mode=author&discussionFilter=active


Stay tuned for more Madden 13 player rating projections.  Thank you for following my blog.  You can also follow me on twitter @mannmicj


Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there.  Guys do something special for your mom, grandma, and wife this weekend.  Like they say, behind every good man(n), there is a great woman.


I will do two more positions next week, enjoy.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Attribute Spotlight - Speed (SPD) Rookie RB's and CB's

UPDATE - See my blog on the Carry (CAR) attribute for QB's (Sack fumble % included): http://maddenmanniac.blogspot.com/2012/07/look-at-madden-12-qb-carry-car.html  See who is the worst QB at protecting the football.


ATTENTION - As of now Madden 13 will not give gamers the ability to hold fantasy drafts, online or offline.  If you would like to let your voice be heard by voting and commenting on the "fantasy draft" topic, please go to this link  http://www.easports.com/gamechangers/ideas?campaignId=27782
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have been putting off this blog for sometime.  I wanted to make sure I covered all my basis and could deliver the information accurately.  So here it is.

The Madden attribute of Speed (SPD) is considered by many to be the single most important attribute in the game.  For years, SPD dominated Madden (bombs to Randy Moss and running tosses with Chris Johnson), it was the first attribute you looked for when setting your lineup. That said, in Madden 12 it seemed speed was not quite as powerful as it once was.  Don't get me wrong it's still important in the game, but offensive players no longer blew by the defenders with ease.

Here is a nice article by ESPN Blogger Jon Robinson: http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/408/rookies-envision-their-madden-characters  He interviewed 9 incoming rookies about their Madden characters, 5 out of them specifically mentioned their speed rating.  

For some time, the general assumption in the Madden community was that the SPD attribute was determined by 40 Yard Dash times (combine and pro day).  Recently, there have been claims by EA's top ratings person (Donny Moore) that "game speed" is more important than 40 time.

Something to also keep in mind w/ SPD ratings/40. We use game speed. Not, running in shorts & no pads speed. It factors in, but not only

So funny after the draft, everyone sending me 40 times (some legit, others questionable) for only the players that go drafted on their team

That was after tweets like this:

Remember the name Nick Taylor. Former FIU Point Guard signs 3 yr deal with Vikings to play CB. Ran 4.27-4.33 at Pro Day. #95+SPD

@JORO12 seeing low 4.41 being reported on some stopwatches for Mr. @JustBlack81. Low 90's range is in the ballpark for his SPD#madden13

Last May, Donny said this:
@Begasu26 40 time does not equal = Madden speed rating, that is the quickest answer




Ok, so if you are confused don't worry, you are not alone.  It seems like two different messages are being put out here.  No wonder fans send Donny tweets about 40 times.  Well, I set out to find the TRUTH and let the numbers speak for themselves.  I am not trying to bash Donny or EA here, but this is the type of information fans are currently receiving.  One of the main things I have asked for in Madden ratings/attributes is consistency, these tweets are far from consistent.

What you are going to see in the following data, is that 40 times have an incredibly strong effect on a players initial (Rookie) Madden SPD attribute.  You will also see that the effect of 40 times on the SPD attribute lessens after the rookie season.  This must be the "game speed" Donny is talking about.

BTW - I could not find a "game speed" calculator anywhere and I found no data available to advise someone how to determine "game speed".  <---This is truth and sarcasm mixed in.

To me, saying "We use game speed", is just another way of saying we just guess.  In most instances, that is the guess of only one person.  Talk about a subjective (bias) way to rate players.  My guess is... it would take a room full of skilled NFL scouts to accurately determine "game speed" and those scouts would have to watch every player in every game to consistently and objectively assign those game speeds.

I hate to break the news to all of you, but Donny doesn't watch every player, every play, of every game. It's not his fault, it's impossible for one person to do that.  That is were 40 times come into play.

Here is a link to NFL.com Mike Mayock discussing combine drills (including the 40):
http://www.nfl.com/combine/workouts

Click on the drop tab in work out drills to listen to him about the 40 yard dash. Here is a blurb from the webpage:
   "40-yard dash
The 40-yard dash is the marquee event at the combine. It's kind of like the 100-meters at the Olympics: It's all about speed, explosion and watching skilled athletes run great times. These athletes are timed at 10, 20 and 40-yard intervals. What the scouts are looking for is an explosion from a static start."

The great thing about using 40 times to determine initial Madden speed, is that it's the most objective way for one person to do it.  These times help reduce bias when one individual is doing most of the player rating.  Every player is on the same page at the NFL combine, the same set of procedures are used to time all players.  ProDay times are the 2nd best source in my opinion, since not every player is at each school's ProDay, but it is the best available data for non-combine invitees.  Unofficial reported times for players who didn't go to the combine or have a documented ProDay are the least reliable in my opinion.

Here is my process for data collection and interpretation:

1.  I collected the initial (1st Madden 12 roster) SPD attributes for all rookie RB's and CB's in 2011, plus I collected their final (Last Madden 12 roster) SPD rating if there was any change.

2.  I then collected all of their 40 times.  If they participated at the NFL combine, I used that 40 time.  If they didn't run at the NFL combine I used there college ProDay time.  Otherwise, I noted the only unofficial reported time I could find on the internet.  My primary references were ESPN.com, NFL.com, and NFLDraftScout.com.

3.  I created a spreadsheet for each position and transferred the data to a scatter plot to determine if there was any correlation between Madden 12 rookie SPD attributes and their 40 times.  I used initial Madden 12  SPD attributes for the scatter plot.

4.  I repeated steps 1 thru 3 for all 2nd year RB's and CB's in Madden 12 for a later comparison.

5.  In the end I used this information to predict the Madden 13 Rookie speed (SPD) attributes for every RB and CB the went to the combine, was drafted, or signed as an undrafted free agent (UDFA) this off-season.

Here is the data, enjoy:

M12 SPD (O) = Original Madden 12 roster speed


M12 SPD (F) = Final Madden 12 roster speed (if blank, SPD did not change from original SPD)


* = Not on original Madden 12 roster, this is final Madden 12 roster speed






Here are the scatter plots:

Just a quick glance at these graphs and you can see the relationship between Madden 12 rookie speeds and 40 times.  I inserted a trend-line and the R^2 (R squared) value to show how strong the correlation is.  The closer the point is to the line, the stronger the correlation.  It's widely accepted that any R^2 value over .80 is a strong correlation.  The closer the R^2 is to 1.0, the more accurately you can predict future SPD ratings.  

You can see all three of these graphs have an R^2 over .80.  If you are interested, here is more information on this type of statistical anaylsis:  http://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics2/correlation.htm

The bottom line, is that in regards to rookie RB's and CB's there is a strong relationship between the assigned Madden 12 speed (SPD) and their 40 times.  


Maybe the folks at EA are not aware of their own tendencies, but in this case the numbers don't lie.  I am actually happy they use something more objective like 40 times, it beats the alternative of one person guessing "game speed."  Since most of us can now agree that EA uses 40 times as the primary factor for rookie SPD attributes, why won't Donny Moore just admit it?  Why deny it?  

I say, keep sending Donny legit 40 times for the incoming rookies, because they clearly have a significant impact on a rookie's initial Madden speed.

* Please note - While there is a strong correlation between M12 speed and 40 times (for these positions), I am not claiming to be able to predict future rookie speeds with 100% accuracy.  These R^2 values indicate that over 80% of the time, SPD can be explained by looking at the 40 time.  Also, this blog only pertains to rookie RBs and CBs (I plan on doing additional positions in future blogs).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that explain rookies.  What about after their rookie year?  Well that is when the so-called "game speed" takes over.  Or in other words, if your performance is good, you get rewarded with a SPD boost, if you are bad you get penalized with a SPD decrease.

Remember, SPD is the top factor (tied with AWR, CAR, BCV) in determining a RB's overall (OVR) Madden 12 rating.  Therefore, as player does better throughout his career he is likely to see an increase in speed regardless of 40 time.  The opposite is true as a player struggles, SPD is likely to be decreased regardless of 40 time.  It's not about "game speed", it's about performance and manipulating the OVR formula (which of course is a horrible formula, that is why you see low CAR attributes even though a RB doesn't have a fumbling problem).  Granted, you can't use the 40 time forever.  Players do age and will naturally slow done.  How much they slow down should be determined by a group of people, not one person.  Again, the goal should always be to reduce bias and be as objective as possible when assigning player ratings/attribues.    

For CB's, SPD is the 2nd most (tied with ACC) important attribute in determining the Madden 12 OVR rating.  MCV is the most important.  So speed will also be manipulated for non-rookie CB's to either increase or decrease OVR, regardless of their actually speed.  "Game Speed" when it comes to Madden attributes is only a myth.  Is anyone at EA really confident enough to say they can accurately determine a player's speed by watching a live game? (Even if they claimed they could, are they really watching every player, every play, and every game to objectively determine that?  NO, they are not.)  Let's call it what is it.  It's a way to reward or penalize players.

Again, let's look at the data.  Here are the 2nd year RB's and CB's in Madden 12:

* Please note - for Dexter McCluster I used his ProDay time since his Combine was viewed by many as a disappointment.  This is also what I believe Donny Moore did based on my research.



* Please note - for Joe Haden I used his ProDay time since his Combine was viewed by many as a disappointment.  This is also what I believe Donny Moore did based on my research.  Not to mention, Josh Looman at EA is huge Browns fan and I'm sure he had an influence on Haden's SPD attribute (he had a horrible 4.62 combine time, 84 SPD range).    

Here are the scatter plots:



A quick glance here, shows a drastic difference in the the Madden 12 speed and 40 time relationship.  The RB sample size was clearly smaller (just the nature of the position in the NFL), but still shows a correlation between SPD and 40 time.  That correlation can no longer be considered strong, but it's there.

The CB's have a larger sample size, but more of them are further from the trend-line.  You have to see through the clutter and look at the R^2 values.  The 2nd year CB's have very little correlation with their 40 times.

Combined, the CB's and RB's still show a correlation, but it's considered weak.

What does all of this mean?  Basically, performance will have a bigger impact (increase or decrease) on SPD with 2nd year players than reported 40 times will.  If you look at the spreadsheets, I believe you can safely make that assumption.  This is what EA calls "game speed".  I call it a more subjective (bias) way of rating player attributes, especially when one person is doing most of the rating.

When Madden 13 comes out, I will revisit the speed attributes of all of the players in this blog.  My guess is the biggest speed adjustments for non-rookies will take place when going from one title to the next (i.e. Madden 12 to Madden 13), that would be EA's opportunity to make those speed adjustments with fewer fan noticing.  In season speed decreases are not a welcome thing by most Madden gamers.

There is currently no indication that EA is going to adjust (fix) the current broken overall (OVR) formula, so comparing M12 attributes with M13 should be credible.

To wrap this section up.  Donny is both right and wrong.

He is wrong when he says, "40 time does not equal = Madden speed rating", because it clearly does (in most cases) in regards to rookies.

He is right when it comes to non-rookies, yet there is still a correlation (albeit weaker).

In the absence of a complete Madden ratings team (this would be a huge undertaking, with at minimum of one skilled ratings representative for every NFL team), I would prefer the 40 time be dominant factor in regards to player SPD (noting that age will catchup to most players and eventually reduce their speed).  Sorry, but using so called  "game speed" factor to determine player SPD, won't provide consistent and accurate attributes.

Please, anyone who can tell me the true definition of "game speed" please let me know.  While your at it, please tell me were I can get fully educated and certified to assign a "game speed" number to every NFL player.  I simply haven't be able to find it.

I think there is a reason why the 40 time is included at the NFL combine.  If it wasn't important, it wouldn't effect the draft position of so many players every year (Yes, other teams besides the Raiders look at combine numbers).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is what you have all been waiting for.  Below is my projected Madden NFL 13 Rookie speed (SPD) attributes for all RB's and CB's that participated at the combine, were drafted, or reportedly signed as an UDFA.

I included draft position, because I believe (and have shown in my Rookie ratings blog series), that Donny will overrate rookies based on draft position.  I believe he will go with a lower ProDay 40 time for the higher draft picks if they disappointed at the combine.  I do not claim that these projections are 100%, but I do believe they will be very close to the Madden 13 speed attributes for rookie RB's and CB's.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Donny continues to deny the impact that 40 times have on rookie speed ratings.

After the projections, I will discuss the 2012 Madden Ultimate Team speeds that some of these players received on draft night.  Some people think the MUT ratings might indicate Madden 13 ratings/attributes.

* Please note - The formula for RB's is slightly different than that of CB's based on my research.  There may be some small differences in the two positions, even with identical 40 times.  It's a very small difference, but this is based on current EA speed rating tendencies.

RB's First:



  - David Wilson received a SPD of 93 in MUT12.  I projected an 89 based on his combine time.  He ran a 4.4 at his ProDay which would have resulted in a 93 using the same formula.  This is an example of the 1st rounder getting the benefit of the doubt.

- Doug Martin received a SPD of 87 in MUT12.  I projected an 87 as well.  He only ran at the combine, there is no ProDay 40 time to give him the benefit of the doubt.  I guess his "game speed" and combine time just happen to matchup.  Since he was drafted by Tampa Bay, I have no doubt EA will quickly increase his speed if he performs well.  Many folks at EA are Tampa Bay fans.  Keep an eye on this one.

- LaMichael James received a SPD of 91 in MUT12.  I projected a 91 speed as well (combine 40).  He ran a 4.41 at his ProDay, but slipped to the 2nd round which may explain him not getting the benefit of the doubt.  A 4.41 would have resulted in a 92 SPD using the same formula.  If he has success early, Niner fans will scream for a SPD increase and will likely get it.  Niners fan pound Donny Moore on twitter and he gives in to them more often than not.

- Trent Richardson received a SPD of 90 in MUT12.  I projected an 89 speed based on his ProDay time.  He didn't not run at the combine.

Here are the projected speeds (SPD) for the Madden 13 rookie CB's:


- Stephon Gilmore received a 94 SPD in MUT12.  I projected a 92 based on his combine time.  He did not have a recorded ProDay time.  I found a unofficial reported time of 4.38 (here: http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-go-with-CB-Gilmore-at-10/e4577261-4e74-4136-9ea9-f915156512f4 ) ,which would have been a 94 using this formula.  He was the 10th pick in the 1st round, so again he was given the benefit of the doubt by EA.

- Dre Kirkpatrick received an 89 SPD in MUT12.  I projected a 88 based on his combine time.  An unoffical reported time of 4.39 will come out if research Kirkpatrick on the internet, but it has no real credibility.  EA correctly disregarded that number, but did give him a slight bump for being drafted in the 1st round.

- Morris Claiborne received a 92 SPD in MUT12.  I projected an 88 based on his combine time.  He ran 4.43 at his ProDay, which would have resulted in a 91 SPD using this formula.  EA gave Claibourne the benefit of the doubt big time.  This is overrating based on his draft position, he was the 6th overall pick and oh by the way, was drafted by the Cowboys.  Let the Cowboy bias conversation begin.  EA makes it too easy for fans to see the clear bias in favor of the Dallas Cowboys.  Come on EA, really?


And just for the fun of it.  Let's do RGIII.  I have not studied the 40 times of rookie QBs or the tendencies of Donny when rating their speed, but let's put his 40 time into the CB formula.

Robert Griffin III received a 93 SPD in MUT12.  His combine 40 was 4.41 which would have resulted in me predicting a 92 SPD based on the CB formula.  RGIII was the 2nd overall pick in the draft and had a rumored unofficial 40 time of 4.32.  To be fair, RGIII was also a very accomplished high school track athlete who set several state records in Texas.  There is a lot of information out there that would back up a 93 SPD rating.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That's it guys.  I know it's a lot of information and I have no problem if you just skipped to the end to see the Madden 13 speed projections.  I plan on doing more positions in the coming weeks, but this kind of blog takes some time to put together.  I need a break.  I would like to thank my loving wife for her support and encouragement to follow my passion.  She is very understanding, while I juggle my real job, family, and this passion.  I would also like to thank all of you that follow this blog, you drive me to do better and dig deeper.  The blog went over 10,000 hits yesterday, I am still amazed.  Next stop, 100,000 hits.

Have a great week.  You can follow me on twitter @mannmicj

Also, don't forget to tweet Donny Moore all of your rookie 40 times (they are important).  You can tweet him @Donny_Moore or you can tweet @EAMaddenNFL